Kaine for VP? It’s His Best, and Only Option

Continued rumors and rumblings have former Governor and current junior Senator Tim Kaine as one of the favorites for Hillary’s Clinton’s vice-presidential pick. Given his perceived resume (did you know he’s fluent in Spanish? Because if you didn’t, prepare to hear it a jillion times on the trail), and the certainty misconception that he’d help deliver Virginia as a swing state, Kaine seems to offer Clinton a balancing act of appealing to white males (her biggest weakness), and Hispanics while delivering a crucial 13 electoral votes.

The reality, of course, is always different than perceptions.

Tim Kaine NEEDS Hillary Clinton. He’s nothing if not a political animal. His endorsement of then Senator Obama way back in February 2007 was one of the first Obama was able to line up in his insurgent campaign run against Hillary. This cycle, Kaine was ahead of the curve as well, endorsing Clinton more than two years ago, well before pretty much anyone else. If you’re detecting a pattern here, there’s a reason. Tim Kaine needs an out as Senator of Virginia.

His endorsement of Obama in 2007 was a clear stake for Vice Presidential consideration, which he received, but finished just short of Joe Biden. His early endorsement of Hillary Clinton is the same. With Mark Warner having disappeared in the Senate after his near-miss to Ed Gillespie, Tim Kaine faces the same fight in 2018. Given the off-year voter turnout demographics, combined with the lessons learned from 2014’s Senate race, Kaine is almost certain to lose his seat in 2018, no matter who the GOP nominee is.

Mark Warner only remains Senator because, inexplicably, the national political landscape ignored the challenge that Ed Gillespie presented him. Running a positive, issue-based campaign, Gillespie highlighted Warner’s disastrous voting record in the Senate, and his close relationship with Obama, two things that were far out of step with Virginia voters. More than FIVE years ago, I called Warner’s reelection chances out, and highlighted his weakness as a candidate in 2014. Yet despite his terrible voting record, national GOP money failed to show up until it was too late, with Gillespie losing by just 16,000 votes out of 2.1 million.

Now, the same challenges face Tim Kaine’s future reelection hopes. And both his resume and popularity are considerably worse than Mark Warner’s in 2014.

Tim Kaine remains largely irrelevant in Virginia politics and history. Despite four three years as Governor (Kaine all but abandoned his elected seat during his tenure as Democratic National Committeeman chairman), Kaine has no executive accomplishments or legacy to point to. His one piece of signature work, HB3202, meant to be a solution for Virginia’s transportation problems, was overturned as unconstitutional, erasing his best bipartisan opportunity for a lasting effect on Virginia. Instead, Kaine is best remembered as the steely and (justifiably) emotional response to the mass shootings at Virginia Tech. Outside of that, however, it was a largely unimpressive four three year term.

There’s also his pre-McDonnell quid pro quo acceptance of an $18,000 vacation in return for a gubernatorial appointment to the Virginia Commission on Higher Education.

Kaine’s political career ‘advanced’ into the United States Senate when, buoyed by presidential level turnout, he easily (but unexpectedly) defeated former Governor and Senator George Allen in 2012. Kaine had been out of office since 2009, and with little to point to in his time between elected offices, was not expected to win. Since his win, Kaine has boosted his foreign-policy chops, but given the Washington gridlock, has little to point to as legislative accomplishments, or as having provided for Virginia. Indeed, one of the few issues he’s led on Virginia’s behalf, offshore drilling, the Obama administration completely ignored his input, refusing to consider leases until at least 2022.

The most recent job approval numbers had Kaine at just +12 percent favorable, and well below the 50% required for a solid chance chance at reelection.

Now, four years into his term, Tim Kaine has inevitably pivoted to supporting his presumptive presidential nominee, and earning considerable vice-presidential nominee hype. He’s fluent in Spanish! He’s a white male! He’s from Virginia!

He’s also desperate to get out of his Senate seat. Vice Presidential is his only option.

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