Against an “Independent Conservative” Candidate

There are whispers all over the rightosphere – and louder proclamations in the Weekly Standard – for a new center-right candidate to enter the race. This “independent-minded conservative” could provide a place for anti-Trump Republicans to park their vote, thus ensuring Trump does not win – and, with enough support, maybe Hillary Clinton doesn’t win either. The odds of actually getting someone on the ballot are ridiculously long – especially as, at present, no one has actually volunteered for the role – but I am not writing this to explain why an “independent conservative” on the ballot would be difficult to do. I am writing to explain why I think it is the wrong thing to do.

At its heart, the “independent conservative” backers are merely the edge of the coin whose two sides I discussed in my post announcing my exit from the GOP last week:

Most Republicans will simply back the nominee, convinced that Hillary Clinton is worse and unable to see past two options. Many will respond to the Trump nomination with the same binary blinders, but hope Clinton wins, so they can go back and attempt to re-orient the Republican Party. A few will do this publicly, most will cynically back Trump in public while hoping he loses in private. Again, however, this assumes Trump is the cause, where in fact he is merely the symptom of the disease.

The “independent conservative” proponents fall for the same fallacy: namely, that the Republican Party would be quite fine if it wasn’t for Donald Trump. Once he loses – so the theory goes – the “independent conservative” backers can reassert control of the party.

This theory has several problems.

First, as I said last week, Donald Trump is not the cause of the GOP’s disease; he is a symptom. The Republican Party is an empty husk of contacts, friendships, rivalries, and hatreds. It is utterly devoid of ideas, and is no longer consistent on basic principles. It is a spent force. None of that will change after November, no matter what the result.

Secondly, the Trump faction of the Republican Party is not going to disappear. If Trump does lose, his backers in the party will not go away…and they will not be forgiving. Those who refuse to back Trump yet still claim allegiance to the GOP will be shunned by those who stay “loyal.” For every Paul Ryan (who, lest we forget, did not actually rule out backing Trump), there is a Rick Perry. For every Ben Sasse, there is a Dick Cheney. For every Pat Toomey (who, like Ryan, did not close the door on a Trump endorsement), there is a Bob Portman. For every Bush, there is a Dole. To the extent that a Republican “establishment” exists, there is more than enough of it aligned with Trump to ensure control of the party – and banishment of any “independent conservative” backers.

Finally, there is the rest of the country to consider. They will not forget what the Republican Party has done, nor will they forgive either. The GOP will be known as “Donald Trump’s party” for a generation – at least. Even those who who try to stay in the party while opposing Trump will be met with one word – over and over again ‘ “Why?” Outside the party, Trump is the epitome what every center-left meme against the GOP. The accusations that sound utterly outrageous to Republican opponents of Trump are validated by Trump himself.

For those who still want to see the size, scope, and cost of government reduced, the Republican Party can no longer be redeemed: not now, not next year, not in 2020. The Titanic has hit the iceberg, and the only option is getting on a lifeboat and espcaing the sinking behemoth.

Or, as Noah Rothman put it in Commentary

If the anticipated anti-Trump tsunami materializes, those GOP legislators who survive it will be entrenched in the reddest states and the most Republican districts – and a majority of them will likely have embraced Trump and Trumpism as the party’s guiding philosophy. There are still holdouts within the GOP coalition like Senator Ben Sasse and House Speaker Paul Ryan, who have declined to lend their support to their party’s presidential nominee, but that kind of resistance is rare and may ultimately be fleeting. Donald Trump will become the titular leader of the Republican Party, and it is baked into the DNA of a political officeholder to eventually rally around the top of the ticket. What remains of the Republican Party after January of 2017 may be a party hostile toward legal immigration, minority voters, free trade, a robust defense of American interests overseas, individual liberty, and bottom-up policy prescriptions to America’s challenges.

My only amendment to the above is to change “may” to “will.”

No “independent conservative” campaign temporarily removed from the GOP can fix this, because this is not a party that can be fixed. It must be replaced.

There are already “minor parties” – two of which (Constitution and Libertarian) can be home to supporters of limited government (I’m leaning towards the latter myself).

By contrast, the “independent conservative” option is nothing more than an attempt to deny the inevitable. The Republican Party is not in a deviation; it is on a course it has laid out for itself for all of the young century. It is lost for good.

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