In this extraordinary presidential election year, about the only constant so far is that the rare and remarkable keeps happening. In a primary process where we normally see competition fizzle and clear victors emerge after Super Tuesday (seven weeks ago), the nomination contests for both major parties remain heated and expensive with over 30 states already in the books.
Ted Cruz optimistically labelled his win in the April 5th. Wisconsin primary as a “turning point” for his campaign. But the final results in the badger state also showed us what we have seen in most of the swing state contests so far. Republican primary voter turnout is surging this year, and regularly beating Democrat turnout in these states that will likely decide the general election in November. Republicans can rejoice that their primary vote totals crushed the Democrats in states like Virginia, Ohio, and Missouri. They also surpassed Democrat turnout in New Hampshire and Michigan.
Of the over 2.1 million primary votes cast in Wisconsin, over 97,000 more more votes were cast for Republican presidential candidates than for Democrats. Additionally, a rather important (and just as heated) statewide election for a ten year seat on the Wisconsin State Supreme Court was decided in Republican Rebecca Bradley’s favor by over 91,000 votes. This was also Wisconsin’s first election held under their new voter ID law,
The exceptions, significantly, have been Democratic turnout “wins” in both North Carolina and the perpetually crucial Florida. And while primary turnout is not always a harbinger for results come November, this year we have been treated (or punished, depending on your perspective) to both parties being embroiled in lengthy and competitive campaigns for their respective nominees. One thing we can say with great confidence here is that this rare interest and continuing competitiveness in both races has kept voters from playing the role of spoiler by crossing over to the other party’s primary because the other one is a lock.
On the Republican side, Donald Trump and his campaign are fond of taking all the credit for these surges in the GOP primary turnout. I agree, but not in the way that Trump’s fervent supporters (so far only 37% of Republican voters, and well below 20% of all voters) would prefer. I have no doubt that Trump’s rhetoric has indeed attracted some blue collar Democrats and immigration hawks alike, and even coaxed some conservatives and evangelical voters from candidates that used to be their favorites. Alas, Trump has made this a bad year to be Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee.
I am just as convinced that “The Donald” has also precipitated a surge in GOP turnout by motivating millions of other voters to show up and try to beat him. Both factors are in play here, and will continue to be.
Right alongside the Trump enthusiasts, there is obviously an equal number of Republicans just as highly motivated to defeat him. Trump’s unfavorable rating of 57% among all voters in a recent CBS/New York Times poll is even worse than Hillary Clinton’s 52%. And an even more recent AP/GfK poll found that 69% of Americans had an unfavorable view of Trump. No wonder he’s the only Republican that Hillary consistently beats in the general election polls looking ahead to November 8th.
Among the anti-Trump Republican voters, we can count principled conservatives who still demand a long track record of proving it from a candidate, pro-lifers, and NRA members who don’t trust Trump’s new found beliefs regarding their main issues. And indeed, there are still a lot of us who still dare to require that a candidate for the most powerful office on the planet be capable of accurately and rationally articulating thoughtful policy positions. “I’m doing well in Idaho. I love their potatoes,” still just doesn’t cut it for a lot of us.
And while it is tough to say how many votes have been cast here or there by voters primarily interested in voting for or against Mr. Trump, I know this anti-Trump primary turnout phenomenon to be real. My rather lackluster record in voting in primaries has recently improved. Trump’s campaign can and will continue to pretend that their voters are entirely responsible for the surge in Republican primary turnout, but the rest of us do not have to be one-eye-blind to what else is really going on. Nor do we have to confuse a plurality with a majority, or indeed pretend that the 63% of us who have voted against Trump in the Republican primaries and caucuses are somehow irrelevant going forward.
Sean Cannan is a longtime pro-life activist and a member of The Human Rights and Scientific Honesty Initiative. Cannan is a registered independent who holds a BA degree in International Relations from the University of Wisconsin-Madison and an AAS degree in Information Systems Technology from Piedmont Virginia Community College.
