Kasich’s Moment
In a normal year, John Kasich would be dismissed as a weak favorite son. He has been rejected by a majority of Republicans in every single state that has voted, and his sole claim to viability is the fact that the 57% who rejected him in his home state of Ohio split their vote among Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio.
Of course, this isn’t a normal year. For starters, every Republican candidate not named Ted Cruz has been rejected by a majority of Republicans in every single state (and Cruz – who is now my choice for president – has only received a documented popular majority in Utah so far). Still, Kasich’s inability to beat Trump outside of Ohio (or Cruz outside of OH and New England) will soon come to end his campaign – unless he can win Pennsylvania on the 26th of April.
As I stated above, I am (now) a Cruz guy, but that doesn’t allow me to discount what a Kasich Keystone win would mean. Kasich’s rationale so far has been general election polls showing he is the best option against Hillary Clinton – a very slender reed given how far away from November we are (note: John McCain led most of the polling in April and May of 2008, only to fall behind in June when Mrs. Clinton finally gave up the ghost and endorsed Barack Obama). Moreover, his inability to beat Trump or Cruz doesn’t bode well for his ability to actually beat Clinton. After all, Republicans know Kasich best right now, and they aren’t exactly showing happiness with what they know.
Kasich needs to actually win a state, but more importantly, he needs to win a state that could be of interest in the fall. One of the most salient points Dwight Eisenhower’s campaign used against Robert Taft in 1952 was his performance among Republicans in marginal (i.e., “swing” states). If Kasich manages to win, say, Rhode Island, few if any would give it much significance.
Pennsylvania is another story.
For starters, it has been just outside “swing” territory for nearly two decades. Every election in the 21st Century has featured a Pennsylvania poll within the margin of error.
Secondly, with 20 electoral votes, the Keystone State could scramble the Electoral College Map. A Republican who wins Pennsylvania (and by assumption Florida and Ohio) doesn’t need Colorado or Virginia.
Finally, there is the U.S. Senate to consider. Several Senators elected in the wave of 2010 are up for a second term – and presumably facing headwinds not seen back then. The Democrats could take the Senate back by taking the open seat in Florida while turfing freshman Senators in Wisconsin, Illinois, New Hampshire, and…
…you guessed it, Pennsylvania.
If John Kasich can come to Cleveland with the backing of the Pennsylvania Republicans, he can show – at long last – that Republicans in a state critical to the party’s fortunes actually prefer him. Given the dearth of relevant results in marginal states (Colorado has no presidential preference vote; Florida and Virginia had the Rubio factor; while New Hampshire and Iowa had a slew of candidates), Kasich’s rationale could actually be comparable to Trump’s or Cruz’s – in terms of which states went for whom.
Of course, we have New York (on the 19th) between now and Pennsylvania (the 26th), and Trump is expected to cruise in his home state. Still, if Kasich can pull a strong second there, he could build some momentum into the 26th. If he can pull off a Pennsylvania win, he can have an actual result to back up his rationale.
John Kasich has waited longer than anyone thought he would – or even could. Many would have preferred he leave the race by now (and many still do). In any other year, he likely would have suspended his campaign already.
But as we all know, 2016 isn’t like any other year…
…and in 2016, Pennsylvania isn’t like any other state.
