New poll shows Virginia Republicans less likely to rally to Trump

Donald Trump was asked repeatedly at the beginning of the campaign whether he would remain loyal and support the eventual Republican nominee for president. He was the only candidate at the first Fox News presidential debate last summer to raise his hand stating he could/would not make that pledge.

According to a new Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Public Policy poll, it would appear Republican voters got Trump’s initial rejection message loud and clear and now they are raising their collective hands. But not in support.

29 percent of Republican voters in Virginia stated they will not support Trump if he is the nominee. Whereas 90 percent of Democratic voters said they will rally around Hillary Clinton should she eventually prevail and be nominated.

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“We found a real loyalty gap,” said Dr. Quentin Kidd, director of the Wason Center. “If Donald Trump turns out to be the Republican nominee, it’s clear that a very significant proportion of Republican voters will either defect or stay home. But it looks like most Democrats – even those who backed Bernie Sanders in the March primary – would support Clinton.”

Throughout much of my adolescence – which was the presidential cycles of 1980-1992 – the country seemed to pivot on the big states: Texas, California, Florida, Ohio and New York. How they voted generally determined the result of the election. Sometimes even in landslides (1984).

Today, there are more swing states. This seems to pivot the advantage to the Democrats, because once solidly-leaning Republican electorates, such as in Virginia, have realigned (again) and become more competitive with the changing demographics.

This makes today’s results from the Wason Center an absolute wake-up call for even the most idealistic conservative. Virginia is critical to win for any serious Republican candidate wanting to become president.

Reading these results it is clear that their truly is a deep fracture among those who call themselves conservatives. This is no surprise to us as it has borne itself out here on the pages and comments of Bearing Drift repeatedly. Unfortunately for conservatives in the commonwealth, those who consider themselves liberal are willing to overcome their differences and unite for the causes in which they believe…including the presidency.

Perhaps this lack of loyalty is just natural? Could it be the fiercely independent streak that is embedded in the conservative movement with notions of “personal responsibility” and “freedom” that inhibits the idea of “loyalty” and makes unifying around a candidate so difficult?

Unity in today’s party is but a novel idea once wrapped-up in Reagan’s 11th commandment – long since forgotten by some and relegated to the dustbin of history.

Attached are the poll results.

Here is the summary of key findings from the poll (updated):

1. Clinton leads Trump 44% to 35% among likely Virginia voters.
2. 90% of Virginia Democratic primary voters say they will support Clinton in November, while only 67% of Republican primary voters say they will support Trump.
3. 29% of Republican primary voters say they will vote for the other party’s candidate, vote for a 3rd party candidate or not vote at all. Among Democratic primary voters, that number is 9%.
4. Young voters, especially Millennials who have been strong for Clinton’s Democratic primary rival, Bernie Sanders, would stick with Clinton over Trump by 22 points.
5. The prospect of a brokered GOP convention sharply divides Virginia Republicans. A majority (57%) of Virginia Republicans likely to vote in the general election oppose using a brokered convention to prevent Trump from becoming the nominee, while 36% support such a move.
6. The gender gap strongly favors Clinton. Women voters prefer Clinton to Trump by 23 points. Men prefer Trump by 6 points.

Listen to Dr. Rachel Bitecofer of CNU’s Wason Center who helps us analyze and better understand the poll results:

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