History warns us of future possibilities, not certainties. The classical model of historiography — described in detail by Polybius — is a cyclical model in which, generally, kingship devolves to tyranny, which foments aristocracy, which devolves to oligarchy, which foments democracy, which foments ochlocracy — or mob rule. When the chaos of mob rule fails, the king triumphantly returns.
One should always hesitate to accept wholesale a model that generalizes civilization; but one should never hesitate to consider the possibilities such models put forth.
Polybius (2nd Century BC) sounds for us the Larum of History in our current democratic state:
But when a new generation arises and the democracy falls into the hands of the grandchildren of its founders, they have become so accustomed to freedom and equality that they no longer value them, and begin to aim at pre-eminence; and it is chiefly those of ample fortune who fall into this error.
So when they begin to lust for power and cannot attain it through themselves or their own good qualities, they ruin their estates, tempting and corrupting the people in every possible way.
And hence when by their foolish thirst for reputation they have created among the masses an appetite for gifts and the habit of receiving them, democracy in its turn is abolished and changes into a rule of force and violence.
For the people, having grown accustomed to feed at the expense of others and to depend for their livelihood on the property of others, as soon as they find a leader who is enterprising but is excluded from the houses of office by his penury, institute the rule of violence.
And now uniting their forces massacre, banish, and plunder, until they degenerate again into perfect savages and find once more a master and monarch.
Take it as you will.
