The one and only thing that now enables Donald Trump to continue winning is John Kasich remaining in the race. I’ll explain why in a minute.
First, let me say that I have been an admirer of John Kasich ever since he gave us balanced budgets and surpluses in the ’90s. I would have been proud to support him if he had won the Republican nomination, but the results to date pretty clearly show that he is not going to be our nominee. If Kasich does not want Trump to win the nomination, he should drop out now.
A friend who works for the Kasich campaign suggested to me the other day that it would be foolish for him to drop out of the race before getting to the Midwestern state primaries, which my friend argues is his strongest region. Well, we have, in fact, had a Midwestern state contest in Iowa, and Kasich placed 8th, with 1.9% of the caucus votes – just behind Carly Fiorina. In fairness, Kasich didn’t really compete in Iowa, but if the Midwest is his strongest region, as my friend claims, then it’s fair to ask, why didn’t he?
Skipping Iowa, Kasich poured everything he had into New Hampshire, which he and his campaign obviously thought would be his best opportunity to establish himself as a top-tier candidate. And he did place 2nd, but with only 16% of the vote. Donald Trump won more than twice as many votes – 35%, while Kasich finished just slightly ahead of Ted Cruz (12%), Jeb! Bush (11%), and Marco Rubio (11%). Nevertheless, while Kasich’s showing in New Hampshire did not establish him as a powerhouse, it did give him the credibility to make his case to South Carolina voters
Kasich worked hard to make that case in SC over the following week and a half, but on Saturday he ended up in 5th place with only 8% of the vote, just behind Bush, who immediately withdrew from the race. Trump won with 33% of the vote, and Rubio slightly edged out Cruz for 2nd, with each getting 22%.
In any other election year, Kasich still could make a reasonable argument for remaining in the race at least through the March 1 Super Tuesday elections. But this year is unique because of this year’s unique candidate, Donald Trump, and the imperative that Trump be stopped.
What makes Trump different than other Republican candidates this year and years past is that he is not a conservative and is not really even a Republican. He is running on a platform that is the antithesis of traditional Republican conservatism, endorsing national health care, increased government programs, and even continued funding for Planned Parenthood. The people who are supporting Trump are not doing so because they think he’s the best Republican in the field. They’re supporting him precisely because he is not a Republican in the traditional sense of the word.
So, it is very likely that people who currently support any of the other mainstream Republican candidates would not gravitate to Trump if their preferred candidate dropped out. The large majority of them would gravitate to another mainstream Republican candidate.
The one other anti-establishment candidate in the race is Ted Cruz. But unlike Trump, Cruz is running on a platform of traditional Republican conservatism. His supporters consist primarily of traditional Republican voters who disdain the establishment but are unwilling to forfeit their conservative values by supporting Trump. Cruz’s reasonably strong showing to date – he pulled an upset victory over Trump in Iowa (although using highly criticized tactics to do so), came in a strong 2nd in NH and virtually tied for 2nd in SC – provides a reasonable rationale for staying in the race.
Kasich does not have such a rationale, and even with Cruz remaining in the race, if Kasich were to drop out, Marco Rubio, not Trump, would win most of the upcoming states. Here’s why:
In SC, Trump got 33% of the vote. Rubio got 22%, and Bush and Kasich got 8% each. Without Bush in the race, his supporters likely would have split between Rubio and Kasich. (Most supporters of Bush, who was seen as an establishment candidate, would not move to anti-establishment candidates Trump and Cruz.) For the sake of simplicity, let’s say they would have split evenly between Rubio and Kasich. That would have given Rubio 26% of the vote and Kasich 12%, still leaving Trump the clear winner.
But if Kasich, who is also generally perceived by the voters as an establishment candidate, had not been in the race, almost all of both candidates’ voters very likely would have gone to Rubio, which would have given him 38% of the vote to Trump’s 33%, giving Rubio the victory even with Cruz keeping his 22%.
So, it’s simple math. Right now, Bush’s supporters will split mostly between Rubio and Kasich, leaving Trump a clear path to winning upcoming states with pluralities as he has done to date. But if Kasich gets out of the race, Rubio will likely win most of the remaining states with pluralities over Trump- even with Cruz still in the race. (And if Cruz were to drop out, it is likely that a majority of his supporters would go to Rubio, thereby giving Rubio outright majorities against Trump in most states.)
So, the one and only thing that will allow Trump to continue winning is John Kasich staying in the race. For the good of the country, now is the time for Kasich to withdraw.
