Emerson College has had a fairly good track record in New Hampsire, though one can probably find a poll that would fit your own narrative. Yet it would appear as if Jeb Bush and John Kasich are going to have a good night in New Hampshire.
With the New Hampshire primary happening tomorrow, a new Emerson College statewide survey shows Republican Donald Trump poised to win in the Granite State with 31% of likely GOP primary voters. The battle is on for second place, with the next four candidates separated by just 5 percentage points: Jeb Bush (16%), John Kasich (13%), Marco Rubio (12%) and Ted Cruz (11%). In the Democratic primary, Bernie Sanders maintains a lead over Hillary Clinton, 54% to 42%.
At this rate, Trump and Sanders appear to have rather firm first place showings. What is more interesting from a politico’s standpoint is that you have five candidates for the GOP nomination all with double digits — a historic phenomenon.
As for Bernie, a showing below 10pts or above 20pts would be notable… but once Sanders gets into the south, the Clinton campaign will begin to show their teeth.
Observers should not be terribly upset/giddy about a Cruz 5th place finish in New Hampshire, even if it is not a double-digit showing. Cruz’s real muscle will show in South Carolina, and that will the contest will be between whomever emerges as the 2nd place candidate in New Hampshire.
The question remains: can Rubio recover (if he does not place 2nd)? Does Kasich have a ground game in South Carolina to follow up on a 2nd place showing? Does Jeb Bush have the muscle to beat both Cruz and either Rubio/Cruz? Or are we looking at a three way race after South Carolina between Bush/Kasich/Rubio, Team Cruz, and Donald Trump’s populist movement?
UPDATE: Oh — and Trump called Cruz a… well… um… a word… because Cruz was wishy-washy on waterboarding.
…and the Trump crowd cheered.
Not quite Obama scratching his head with his middle finger when he was on the campaign trail (to the cheering throngs of Democrats), but there it is.
