Why Randy Forbes is drawn toward the 2nd

The good news for Randy Forbes is that, in the wake of the Federal District Court redrawing his 4th Congressional District, he has received an outpouring of support from Republicans across the region.

The bad news for Randy Forbes is that, in the wake of the Federal District Court redrawing his 4th Congressional District, he has received an outpouring of support from Republicans across the region.

This is a double-edged sword because Forbes, whose 4th went from slightly more Republican than the nation as a whole to far less Republican than the nation as a whole, now has Republicans in three separate Congressional districts who want him as their nominee. For now, he seems focused on the neighboring 2nd district, but Republicans in the 4th (egged on by a would-be challenger to Forbes in the 2nd – Virginian-Pilot) would prefer keeping the incumbent and hoping for a Hail Mary to an open seat and near-certain defeat. I can sympathize, although I cannot empathize (the map drew me into the 3rd District). Meanwhile, the changing lines in Chesterfield County have led to whispers of Forbes going westward to challenge David Brat – whispers that are almost certainly the triumph of hope over experience.

Given that this will be the most interesting Virginian political drama for the year – until it becomes clear that Virginia decides who resides in the White House on the 20th of January – some analysis is in order as to what would be best for Forbes, and possibly the rest of us. Let’s take each district in turn.

The 7th: I start with this one because it’s the easiest to dismiss. From Forbes’ perspective, it’s just a bad fit. Randy Forbes was in the General Assembly for 10 years – representing Hampton Roads. He has no local history in the Richmond area. Moreover, while Dave Brat (the incumbent Republican in the 7th) has upset a lot of people, Forbes is much closer to Brat politically than many in the 7th realize (Forbes voted against TARP in 2008, and against the Export-Import Bank reauthorization in 2012). That has built a number of bridges that would be burned to cinders if Forbes went westward.

As for Brat himself, whatever one may think of him (and I think more kindly of him than some of my fellow BD contributors), he does speak for a large portion of the party that has felt under-served recently. A Forbes-Brat primary would cause all sorts of wounds to be reopened, and no matter who wins, the party and the state lose.

The 4th: While I am no longer in this district, I have friends who still are, and in the aftermath of the decision, most of them had the same first instinct – to try figuring out how Randy could win in the new 4th. Given the numbers, that’s highly unlikely. From a viability perspective, the 4th is not what it once was for Forbes.

What’s been lost in the discussion, however, is this: the 4th isn’t what it was for the rest of us either. The district anchored in western Hampton Roads is now centered on the Richmond-Petersburg axis. Half of the voters in Forbes’ home city (Chesapeake) are no longer there – which begs the question of how many “4th district” voters tagged in the aforementioned would-be challenger’s robocall actually live in the 3rd now. More to the point, the district itself is now of a completely different character. Hampton Roads jurisdictions now comprise less than a quarter of the 4th’s residents (Chesapeake had over a quarter of the old 4th – by itself). About the only thing in the 4th that remained were part of the rural Southside and Forbes’ own residence. The 4th is no longer a Hampton Roads district; it is a Southside-Central district now, and ideally, it should have a member from either of those subregions.

That leaves the 2nd, which I would argue is the best fit for Forbes. It’s much more of a Hampton Roads district than the 4th has become, and with Scott Rigell’s retirement, there is no incumbent to challenge (which is better both for Forbes and for the district).

Yes, it is clearly anchored in Virginia Beach – and the Beach has a number of promising Republicans. But none of them have Forbes’ seniority on the House Armed Services Committee (he’s next in line for the Chair), and if the Wagner-slating battle is any indication, the Beach could probably use someone who can appeal to both factions of the Republicans Party. Randy Forbes can do that; in fact, he has done it for over 25 years. Moreover, Forbes would obviously have greater appeal to the 40% of the district that isn’t in Virginia Beach.

All in all, it’s fairly clear why Forbes is looking to the 2nd District, and why many in the 2nd are looking to him as well.