Despite a fairly shocking 1st place win in Iowa knocking off Trump, there’s no question that Trump’s lead in New Hampshire hasn’t shown much wilting over the last two days.
From Harper Polling:
Donald Trump maintains a strong lead in New Hampshire, earning 31% of the vote on the Presidential Republican Primary ballot test. Jeb Bush (14%) leads the field in the race for second place, followed by John Kasich (12%) and more distantly by Marco Rubio (10%), Ted Cruz (9%) and Chris Christie (6%).
Of course, for all the pretensions otherwise, Iowa’s results were unsurprising in all but one category: Cruz besting Trump. Even then, there are question marks, as Trump’s ground organization in Iowa was barely evident, while Cruz literally pulled out every stop (ethically or otherwise) to beat the Trump insurgency.
Rubio’s 3rd place finish — though being touted as a massive coup, was anything but. Rubio had to finish 3rd. A second place finish would have been an accomplishment; a fourth place finish (behind Carson) would have been a disaster. Rubio’s problem now is expectations… because if either Bush or Kasich outperform Rubio, it could effectively signal the end for the Rubio presidential bid.
…which raises interesting questions for either Bush or Kasich at this point. It is pretty clear at this rate that Bush must finish 2nd in New Hampshire, possibly a salvageable 3rd if behind Kasich. Kasich has the luxury of being able to finish either in 2nd or 3rd place, as either showing would be far beyond the expectations of the chattering class.
Then there is Ted Cruz.
Hypothetically, Cruz could make the appeal that others could not: that somehow Cruz is more pliant and valuable to the GOP than the Bush/Christie/Kasich/Rubio contingent might be. One suspects — though I have no window into the soul of the Cruz campaign — that they will put a modicum of effort in NH, but focus on South Carolina and the SEC primary instead. A risky gambit, but better than expending all the firepower and energy of the Iowa win only to lose in New Hampshire… though a 2nd place finish would turn heads. A 3rd place finish where Team Cruz put its back into it? Not so much… though a 3rd place finish spun as an afterthought is a more likely approach.
A superior showing by any of the 3rd-tier candidates would be impressive as well — Christie, Carly, Gilmore — but improbable at best. A host of suspensions and endorsements should follow immediately (HINT: expect Paul to endorse Cruz rather soon).
This poll, coupled with new polling data showing Democratic contender Bernie Sanders holding an impressive double digit lead against Hillary Clinton, suggest that we are heading to a likely Trump/Sanders win in New Hampshire.
What remains? For the GOP, who will be the presumptive anti-Trump candidate? If it boils down to Rubio/Bush, then Florida becomes the kingmaker. If it boils down to any of the other candidates vs. either Rubio or Bush in Florida? One has to assume that either of the Floridians will have the inside track. The real question remains: as Cruz (and now Paul) slide further down into irrelevancy, can Trump put together 50% of the Republican coalition in order to gain the nomination? The populist right clearly isn’t going anywhere — it remains to be seen whether or not they have completely won the GOP Civil War.
Yet a much more dangerous game is being played for the Democratic nomination. In just eight short years, we have seen the Democratic Party go from liberalism to progressivism to full blown democratic socialism. Sanders is as serious as a heart attack, and if Clinton cannot pull her campaign together?
Stranger things have happened…
Still, as it stands today? Despite the Iowa results, Bush is your anti-Trump in New Hampshire at the moment.
UPDATE: A helpful reader who knows my weakness for track polling sends this gem:
Donald Trump is still in first place, but he’s frozen at 38%. Ted Cruz is second with 14%. Marcio Rubio is third with 12%. Jeb Bush has 9% and John Kasich has 7%.
Meanwhile, the aggregate polling over at Real Clear Politics? Trump 33, Cruz 11.7, Kasich and Rubio at 10.7 each, and Bush at 9.8.
