Not sure they’re rumors anymore. Emerson Polling echoes:
Breaking: #NewHampshire Republican Poll Results: Donald Trump- 35% Jeb Bush- 18% John Kasich- 14% Marco Rubio- 9% Ted Cruz- 8%
— ECPS (@EmersonPolling) January 27, 2016
Now this reflects some lift in the Reuters 5-Day Track Poll where Bush has seen a lift from the doldrums of 5% to a more respectable 11% in recent days, matching Carson and more amazingly, Cruz… who has been in epic free fall after the last debate performance coupled with questions regarding his Canadian-ness.
Former Ohio Governor John Kasich, in contrast, seems to be playing the role Florida Senator Marco Rubio was expected to play, as his numbers in NH have outpolled even Cruz at his height from time to time (according to RCP’s aggregate polling).
Interesting as well is this: if one assumes that Trump’s support is greater than what “The Polls” (TM) indicate due to unknowns (Democratic and independent support), then the Reuters poll showing Trump closer to 40% might be the more accurate poll vs. the polls going after registered Republicans showing Trump at 30%. That lift seems to help certain candidates as well — Carson does better in the Reuters polling than he does in the RCP polls, for instance. Reuters methodology clearly is leaning towards some sort of inverted Obama-esque turnout, where the populist sentiment comes out in a tidal wave.
Should that dynamic hold? Kasich and Bush seem to be the beneficiaries, as Cruz continues to drop and Rubio keeps his foot on the clutch.
All speculation, of course. Good thing we have the only poll that matters coming up on February 9th, eh?
