Today’s numbers from Quinnipiac seals the deal — Cruz is finished after the Iowa Caucus.
Bold prediction? It’s all in the numbers…
(1) Cruz is tapped out. Note the Tea Party and social conservative support. So long as Carson remains in the race — and there’s a strong potential that Carson will finish second in New Hampshire — Cruz has no oxygen left.
(2) Trump has more outs than Bobby Fischer. Moderates? Got ’em. Liberals? Got them too. Men, women. college graduates, non-college graduates, evangelicals… the only other candidate with comparable appeal is Florida Senator Marco Rubio. One might argue that Cruz has this in certain areas, but it is emphatically clear that Cruz right now cannot unite the ticket nor expect support from moderate or independent voters.
(3) Fiorina, Huckabee, Santorum all out. Christie will stay in until New Hampshire, then boost a candidate that is advantageous to his future prospects. Kasich might be out by NH, but that really depends on the landscape. Bush is aiming for second or third place in New Hampshire… if less, then he has decisions to make. Gilmore will wait until Virginia.
(4) Rand Paul has options, but not many. Paul has to get to South Carolina… but if he cannot demonstrate support as the other candidates drop out? This becomes problematic.
(5) Rubio has got to make a move. Problem is, any move he would make will require the support of the people who made him: Jeb Bush’s people. Best of luck…
Here’s your “chart of doom” for the day:
What does it show us? Cruz flubbed the debate. Rubio has flatlined. Bush is rising from 6% to 11%, but that’s not enough. Trump was winged… but has recovered.
The only good news for those opposed to the idea of a Trump candidacy is that he doesn’t seem to be able to break the ceiling of 40%. Good news if you are one of the outsiders, provided the outsiders coalesce around one person — quickly. Otherwise, by the time we get to the SEC primary, if the national narrative becomes Trump and his inevitable rise?
Get ready. Trump might very well become the Republican nominee after all.
