Iowa: Rubio Wins By Losing, Cruz’ One Shot, and Expections Trump Everything

The Iowa Caucuses rarely pick who will be President, but they most assuredly decide who will not.

Three and a half weeks until the Iowa caucuses meet and Iowa is shaping up exactly as it usually does for the Republican Presidential field of hopefuls. The New Hampshire primaries are held just eight days later and many candidates are eyeing the first primary instead and ceding Iowa to those with the organizational edge required to do well there.

That means Sen. Ted Cruz could very likely win Iowa and have it mean almost nothing. In what could be a fatal error, Cruz has allowed the likelihood of his winning Iowa become the expected outcome. He leads in several polls and has the social conservative credentials that make him popular with Iowa voters.
But outside of Iowa, Cruz is hurting. Cruz is tied for fifth in New Hampshire, and underperforming in Iowa would likely drop him out of the top five in New Hampshire, leaving little reason for him to continue on.

Cruz and Donald Trump are virtually tied in Iowa, and in terms of delegate count, it really doesn’t matter who is first and who is second. Donald Trump has been downplaying Iowa, smartly, so if Trump edges Cruz, an air of inevitability begins for Trump and Cruz won’t survive past New Hampshire. Cruz must win Iowa.

If Cruz gets an Iowa bump, he can pull away from pack in New Hampshire. But if Cruz collapses in Iowa, his supporters will have to go somewhere (there’s a reason Trump is so publicly friendly to Cruz and not to Rubio, Bush or anyone else.) A Cruz collapse and a shift of his voters to Trump makes this race effectively over.

If Cruz is marginalized, South Carolina is Trump’s. He’s led that state for the year with only Ben Carson coming close.
Notice one name absent? Marco Rubio.

Rubio is right behind the leaders in each of these states. I think Rubio’s strategy is to stay close in the early primaries and collect voters from the candidate beneath him as they drop out. Super Tuesday, when many southern states including Virginia are scheduled to vote. Rubio’s hope is to amass support from the Bush’s, Fiorina’s, Christie’s, and Carson’s of the field between then and now and be able to go head to head with Cruz and Trump.

A Cruz exit helps Trump. Cruz staying in helps Rubio.

So, the Iowa Caucuses are important after all.

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