As reported today by Andrew Cain in the Richmond Times-Dispatch, the demographic prognosticators at the University of North Carolina are predicting that Virginia will add an additional Congressional seat after the 2020 census and subsequent Congressional reapportionment.
This prediction, coupled with the Supreme Court agreeing to hear arguments in the Wittman v. Personhuballah case seeking to overturn a lower court ruling that Virginia’s Congressional lines have been drawn in violation of the Voting Rights Act, are putting renewed emphasis on redistricting issues in the General Assembly.
What this also means is that it is absolutely critical that the Virginia GOP resolve its internal conflicts now, before the 2017 Governor’s race and the 2019 State Senate races, because redistricting is going to be a major issue in 2021. Whether we like it or not (and some clearly don’t care if we win or lose, as long as those they dislike lose), the Virginia GOP’s ability to govern rests on who we can get elected to office, and winning elections matters.
Right now, despite our inability to win statewide contests, losing every statewide race we’ve run since 2009, we have maintained an 8-3 edge in our Congressional delegation. How did we do that? Gerrymandering. Not everybody wants to talk about it, but it is true, and without Bob McDonnell’s landslide win, redistricting would not have gone as well for Republicans as it did. Thanks to Governor McDonnell and Speaker Howell working out a deal with then-Senate Democratic Majority Leader Saslaw, Republican districts got redder and Democratic districts got bluer. Despite the claims of Democratic partisans who want to argue that the 2nd and 10th Districts are in play for Democrats, there has been only one district in Virginia where the incumbent party hasn’t won by more than 15% since the last round of redistricting – Scott Rigell in 2012, and he won by 7.7%. Barbara Comstock won by 16% in 2014, which is likely the only chance that the Democrats had to take back a district that has returned a Republican to Congress by double digits for over thirty years, regardless of redistricting. Despite the efforts of some to push for a non-partisan redistricting process, the chances of that happening are no closer today than they were in 2009 when we went through the last redistricting process.
So what would a Virginia 12th District look like? It’s hard to say at this point, but there are a few things we can probably state with some certainty. First, it will be a Northern Virginia district. The demographic growth in Northern Virginia are staggering. Loudoun County has seen a 16% increase in population since 2010, Prince William has seen 11%, Arlington and Alexandria have seen 9% increases, and Fairfax has seen a 3% increase. Each of these areas are expected to continue to grow steadily, and the region already includes 1/3 of the entire Virginia population. It will also likely be an ethnically diverse district. Northern Virginia remains the most educated and most affluent area in Virginia and it’s also the most diverse. Northern Virginia has long been a magnet for Asian and Hispanic immigration, with the Asian community’s size in Northern Virginia tripling the national average.
The opportunity for Republicans in Northern Virginia is the ability to unpack some of the more Democratic districts and create competitive seats out of the Northern Virginia districts. Right now, based on the way the lines are drawn, the 8th and 11th Districts are solidly Democratic, with no Republican challenger running competitively since the last round of redistricting. Unpacking the 8th and 11th, drawing a new district that includes some more red areas further south into Prince William and elsewhere could make those seats competitive and give Republicans in Northern Virginia a chance to win back seats that used to be reliably Republican.
Before anybody starts drawing lines for this potential 12th seat, it’s critical to recognize that the General Assembly and the Governor will draw these lines and approve them. Republican control of the House of Delegates is not in jeopardy, thanks to gerrymandering, and with the courts being unwilling to take up General Assembly lines, this shouldn’t change in either 2017 or 2019. The Senate, on the other hand, is still up for grabs. After this year’s disappointing Senate results, it is absolutely imperative that the GOP maintain control of the Senate in 2019 – doing so will protect our Congressional incumbents and ensure that the lines drawn give our candidates the best shot at increasing our Congressional majorities.
First, however, we need to take back the Governor’s mansion in 2017 and reverse our trend of statewide losses. Whoever wins the GOP nod in 2017 has got to be a candidate who can gain support from the various factions and can win both a convention or a primary, depending on what nominating process the new State Central Committee decides after next year’s State Central elections. Ed Gillespie can do that, and hopefully other candidates will pause before jumping in the race given his strength – a united party behind a consensus candidate without a divisive nomination process will put us in the best position to win in 2017 and protect our majorities in the General Assembly and Congress no matter what happens.
Now, more than ever, all of the factions of the party need to start burying the hatchet (somewhere other than in their fellow Republican’s backs, preferably) and start looking at long term goals. Regardless of what policy or ideology drives you, without control of these seats, nothing else really matters.
