Anyone who was placing summertime bets for a Trump implosion has lost a few bucks. Most expected it, but the most that’s happened so far are periods of stabilization. Carson gave him a run, but spent very little time at Trump levels before crashing down to his mid-tier level.
Polls up until now aren’t anything to bank on, or we’d have Presidents named Bachmann or Giuliani or we’d have a 9-9-9 tax code. But moving into December, polls actually will start having meaning, and Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina are the playing fields that matter.
Here’s how they stack up lately:
Iowa: Trump 25, Cruz 23, Carson 18, Rubio 13, Paul 5, Bush 4, Fiorina 3, Huckabee 2, Christie 2, Santorum 2, Kasich 1, Graham 0, Pataki 0
NH: Trump 32, Rubio 13, Cruz 10, Carson 10, Kasich 8, Bush 6, Paul 6, Fiorina 6, Christie 5, Huckabee 1, Graham 1, Santorum 1, Pataki 0
SC: Trump 35, Carson 19, Rubio 16, Cruz 13, Bush 5, Graham 3, Kasich 2, Fiorina 2, Huckabee 2, Paul 1, Christie 1, Santorum 1
Trump is running away with the two primary states and is leading Cruz in Iowa, but just barely. Regardless, since none of the three are winner-take-all states, close counts for delegates.
But what is apparent is that the crowded field is helping Trump in a big way right now. The top four have 79% of the vote in Iowa, 65% of the vote in NH and 83% of the vote in SC. That’s becoming a firewall, in that the bottom tier candidates can’t break out of the single digits and the upper tier are only shifting voters amongst themselves if their shifting at all.
The bottom nine candidates in Iowa have 5% or less totaling 19 points. How many of these nine candidates will make it to Iowa or New Hampshire? Where will their voters go? Will there be enough of them to matter?
Trump’s best bet is to keep the field as full as possible. I’m not sure if average Kasich voters, Fiorina voters or Bush voters have Trump second on their lists. It’s pretty clear that the folks who fled Carson went right to Cruz, but outside of Iowa, Cruz really hasn’t played well. Could change.
The Donald hasn’t been completely Teflon Don, but he’s been pretty close. Despite a number of gaffes, he’s in the driver’s seat and pretty securely for the time being.
The national polls have Trump with 32, Carson with 22, Rubio with 11 and Cruz with 8.
No real signs of shifting on the horizon.
