The Virginian-Pilot has a bit more on the new Virginia redistricting maps, which affect most of eastern Virginia while leaving the west intact — but not in a good way for some folks:
If adopted, the plans would present re-election challenges for Reps. Randy Forbes, a Chesapeake Republican, and Bobby Scott, a Newport News Democrat, who would trade voters and cities in an effort to make the districts more racially balanced.
The state’s 3rd Congressional District – now represented by Scott – would no longer be a black-majority district as the percentage of black voters would shrink from 56 percent to 42 or 45 percent. Meanwhile the 4th District, represented by Forbes, would see its white majority drop from 63 percent of voters to just under 54 percent to allow greater clout for black voters.
The two plans crafted by Bernard Grofman, political science professor and redistricting expert at the University of California-Irvine, would centralize the 3rd District in the cities of Portsmouth, Hampton and Newport News. One version includes all of Norfolk in the 3rd, while the other version splits the city between the 3rd and the 2nd District, represented by Scott Rigell.
Paul Prados over at The Bull Elephant has kindly taken the maps out of the archaic PDFs that everyone else had seen and put them into Google Maps:
VA-03 is indeed more compact, with Williamsburg going into VA-02 and much of Rep. Forbes’ district absorbing the scrapple parts of VA-03.
While everyone is focused on VA-03 and the Hampton Roads area, a funny thing happened in Central Virginia…
Hanover County and New Kent — stalwart conservative areas desperately needed by beleaguered populist freshman Rep. Dave Brat — are now firmly in the hands of Rep. Rob Wittman and the First District. Chesterfield County gets more of its neighbors, as the center of gravity in both maps (NAACP and the court map) is firmly south of the James River.
Short version? Brat is going to have to reintroduce himself to a good portion of his district, and in an environment where poise and maturity will be held in stark contrast to Brat’s do-nothing and anti-immigrant sell out platitudes — expected from the author of Virginia’s unconstitutional 2007 tax hike.
The real question will be the future of Rep. Randy Forbes, should these maps hold. Forbes is a political powerhouse, a former RPV chairman, and not one for the sidelines. Should Forbes face a re-election contest in a map that takes VA-04 from R+10 to D+4, does Forbes choose to run for statewide office in 2017 or 2018?
Of course, all of this is mere speculation. The timeline for this will be the curious factor: whether SCOTUS is in no rush to make things go. Hearings will be on schedule, and rulings might not come down until June 2016 at the earliest — still plenty of time for an early September nomination method as provided by state law. Hypothetically, SCOTUS could expedite things… but why bother?
On a sideline, it does mean that your State Central Committee races are indeed in stone. Even if redistricting takes place by court order, your SCC will be along the current lines.
…and there is still a better-than-even chance that SCOTUS will see this as a politically driven process. All of this could be moot, but if not? Forbes will move on to greater things; Brat more swiftly into one-and-done obsolescence.
