Debates not thinning the field

Tonight’s twin debates bring around the usual expectations of Survivor – who is going to quit the island.

With the Iowa caucuses still a long three months away, the Republican field still has 15 candidates officially running. So far, this series of monthly debates hasn’t resulted in many dropouts.

NY Gov. George Pataki, VA Gov. Jim Gilmore and SC Sen. Lindsey Graham aren’t in either debate tonight. Only way anyone hears from them tonight is if they buy an ad.

The Fatal Fourway “kids table” debate will feature NJ Gov. Chris Christie, AR Gov. Mike Huckabee, LA Gov. Bobby Jindal and PA Sen. Rick Santorum.

Fine gentlemen all, but does anyone really foresee this half of the field winning the Republican nomination? None of these have the money to compete in February, but if the goal is to hang on until then and see what happens, that doesn’t cost a whole lot. Still, except for Christie, these candidates make up the bottom of the cash-on-hand list as well as the polls.

The Main Event features Donald Trump, Ben Carson, FL Sen. Marco Rubio, TX Sen. Ted Cruz, FL Gov. Jeb Bush, Carly Fiorina, OH Gov. John Kasich, and KY Sen. Rand Paul.

These are the real players, and even then there are some that I can’t see running the IA, NH, SC gauntlet and doing that well. Then comes the 12-state Super Tuesday (including VA) that should pretty much decide things. All of these are proportional Delegate awards and not winner-take-all, so there may be still a good number of candidates for Virginia to choose from in March.

Last debate I said it was time for Rubio to make a move, and he did so. He has clearly outpaced Bush and is in the upper tier.

Tonight isn’t a time for anyone to move up. It’s a time to keep from moving down. Carson will be expected to take some bombs tonight. Can he make up for it in what will surely be an issue-loaded debate? Trump has the same moment. He’s going to have to communicate his plans in detail more than he ever had to.

Tonight is about Carson and Trump protecting their leads. If either fails, the path is clear for Rubio. Kasich has about his best chance to shine tonight. He clearly can talk issues with the best of them. If he can be direct about it and not spend his time playing grownup, Kasich can vault pretty quickly up the field. It’s all about clarity.

Eventually, someone is going to wonder if Cruz is for real. His money looks great and he usually has one of the bigger cheerlines in these debates, but he is still not seen as top tier. If Carson stumbles and Rubio stalls, Cruz could cruise to Trump level, but that’s a lot of ifs.

I don’t expect 5 candidates to drop out like I figured would happen by now. These debates haven’t been those kind of debates. Heck, three candidates aren’t even in them and they’re not dropping out.

So my prediction is tonight will be more about whether candidates keep their leads and less about who drops out.

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