DPVA seems to have conceded defeat early — as in 9:45am early in a desperate attempt to control the narrative in the event of a catastrophic, horrendous, and embarrassing loss.
You can read the desperation by clicking here, and folks — this is reading circle kind of good:
While many competitive districts shifting to be more Democratic long-term, the demographic gains we’ve made are among populations who do not typically turn out to vote, especially in an off-off-off year. While our unprecedented field and targeting programs have helped, all data shows that likely voters this election are still much more Republican. And fatigue from the seventh year of a Democratic presidency in a state with five statewide Democrats hurts the environment even more.
. . .
Ultimately — and against the odds — Democrats have invested in, and executed, data and field programs that will pay dividends, both on Tuesday and long into the future.
So a couple of points:
(1) Notice how the DPVA memo doesn’t mention issues? Me neither… which tells me that the strategy of nationalizing the state races failed to mobilize the demographics DPVA discusses above.
(2) The demographics argument in terms of deciding elections is dead, dead, dead. Republicans have figured it out… and get ready for this.
(3) The idea that base elections are what determines outcomes is dead as well. Neither party was able to capitalize on this feature. So what was the deciding factor?
(4) Candidates forge the coalitions needed to win. The triumph of expressive choice theory, ladies and gentlemen — whereas Democrats assumed that demographics was destiny, and Republicans assume that elections that motivate the base determines victory, this election is proving above all else that voters are looking to emulate their own qualities in the nominee: Hal Parrish in Prince William, Nancy Dye in Roanoke, Frank Wagner in Virginia Beach, and Glen Sturtevant in Chesterfield.
(5) McAuliffe is a lousy investment. For all the money the Democrats poured into Virginia elections? They’d have done better looking for an ROI on Greentech stock.
Best of luck explaining this to investors, folks — Bloomberg’s millions would have done better handing out $100 bills on the street than spent on television ad buys in the last moments of the election. At this rate, all of McAuliffe’s spending probably prevented a massive defeat from turning into a Democratic rout in ’15.
(6) All eyes on Fairfax, folks… because if the Democrats produce something other than a status quo ante bellum up there, it will destroy the narrative that Virginia is a blue state. In fact, Virginia will prove to the national punditry that we are a red state getting its act together for a massive repudiation of the left in 2016.
No small wonder why the memorandum ends with a “this will pay dividends in the long term” argument. At 9:45am, they threw in the towel… and they know that a massive, earth shaking repudiation is in the works this Tuesday afternoon.
Buckle up, folks.
