The polls in Iowa show it clearly — the outsiders are cleaning up. For now:
The poll of 400 likely Republican caucus-goers finds Trump experiencing the biggest overall surge in support, leading a thriving pack of outsiders. In May, before the tycoon officially entered the Republican primaries, the DMR/BPol survey found him at just 4 percent support, with a toxic favorable rating of -36 points. The new poll finds Trump at 23 percent, and a positive favorable rating of 26 points, a dramatic reversal in voter opinion. Carson has surged by eight points, from 10 to 18 percent, and seen his favorable rating surge from +41 to +71.
Two candidates seeking office for just the second time also saw notable gains. Carly Fiorina, the former CEO of Hewlett-Packard, saw a jump from just 2 to 5 percent, but her favorable numbers rose from +26 to +49, a gain reflected in the high number of Republicans calling her their second choice. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) rose from 5 to 8 percent, with smaller but notable growth in his favorable numbers.
Those gains came at the expense of more experienced candidates — starting with Walker. He tumbled from 17 percent support to 8 percent, despite boasting some of the highest favorable ratings of anyone in the race. Former Florida governor Jeb Bush fared no better, slipping from 9 percent to 6 percent as his favorable rating remained underwater.
The usual caveats apply: it’s early, anything can happen, and such and such.
The normal play is to look beyond Iowa, and even New Hampshire, to the later states — South Carolina, and the clutch of contenders on Super Tuesday, which includes Virginia. These are the contests that matter. Which is part of the reason Ted Cruz has been touring the South extensively.
He’s the one to watch. The others? They’ve had their lunch money and bus fare taken from them by Trump and, increasingly, Ben Carson. When some campaigns (or their super PACs) pull the plug is an open question.
On the list of zombie campaigns today: Perry, Santorum, Christie, Jindal. The list of those nearing zombie status: Huckabee and Paul.
The ones that never rose from the grave: Gilmore. Pataki. Graham. A moment of silence, please.
But here’s something to consider regarding the current frontrunner…
His recent assaults on Jeb Bush are not random. They are both calculated and necessary. A candidate like Trump needs a candidate like Bush in the race — as a foil.
Without a foil, Trump runs against shadows. Or worse, he’s forced to run against Hillary Clinton, who for the moment, has been frozen in place by Joe Biden.
