While Americans argue about the Iran deal, and Republicans ponder the rise of Donald Trump, life goes on in the rest of the world…including a major trade deal that could be finalized before the week is out; and the Canadian government is hinging the start of its election campaign on the deal being done (National Post).
The Conservatives are anxiously hoping to sign off on a massive free-trade deal before kicking off an election campaign expected to start as early as Sunday.
The government is at the negotiating table in Hawaii, where Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) talks are reportedly in their final stages. With voting day set for Oct. 19, the governing Tories want to launch the campaign with the deal in hand — an agreement they could brandish as evidence of their economic stewardship.
CBC reported Wednesday that Harper will ask Gov. Gen. David Johnston on Sunday or Monday to dissolve Parliament. The Tories have a major rally planned for Montreal on Sunday night, the CBC reported.
If Prime Minister Stephen Harper gets what he wants, the TPP could be signed by tomorrow or Saturday.
Make no mistake, this is inarguably the largest trade deal in 20 years…and it is likely to happen just before the first Republican presidential debate, at a time where both parties are dealing with a protectionist-insurgency candidate (Trump for the GOP, Bernie Sanders for the Democrats).
Assuming Trump is his usual self on TPP (loud, protectionist, and memorable with sound bites), he could easily rise in support in reaction. Free-traders within the party will be looking for a voice to challenge him. The most likely to fill that role are Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio (full disclosure: Rubio is my choice for president), with everyone else probably keeping their heads down. For the Democrats, I expect Mrs. Clinton will do everything in her power to avoid answering the question, then end up opposing it just to keep Sanders (or anyone else) from outflanking her.
As for the deal itself, of course we would need to see the provisions, but I will say this: if Canada agrees to end its supply management nonsense, I’ll likely support TPP. It’s geopolitical benefits are already obvious (Communist China is not party to the deal), but supply management goes down it also means a much more open agricultural market in North American and the Pacific, which is better both for our farmers and for consumers.
Of course, that could also completely change the nature of Canada’s upcoming election – making it more important than any since the 1988 vote effectively ratified Canada’s free-trade agreement with the US. But that’s for future posts.
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