While the political parties each sort out whom will be the nominated standard-bearers for them, there is probably a more crucial question than the personalities on the ballot.
Who will actually vote?
Much was made about how different the 2008 election was from previous cycles. A record 131 million votes, 9 million more than 2004 (half of which were African-American, Hispanic or Asian). Highest turnout percentage since the 1960s. Increase in younger voters.
Republican pollsters and analysts bet the farm that 2008 was a one hit wonder and 2012 would come back to normal, with Obama’s performance not exactly matching his promise.
And they lost the farm.
Dick Morris – I derided the media polls for their assumption of what did, in fact happen: That blacks, Latinos, and young people would show up in the same numbers as they had in 2008. I was wrong. They did/”
Anyone with any experience polling knows the key to a poll having any validity at all is how close the sample matches the likely voting population. Gender, age, party ID – they all matter. Create a sample that doesn’t match Election Day, and your poll numbers won’t mean a thing.
The question for 2016 is will polling organizations and campaigns be using a likely voting model that looks like 2008 and 2012 did?
In other words, were the 2012 and 2016 surges specifically an Obama phenomenon or has the board been changed forever. Will voters of all ages who cast their first votes for Obama be showing up again for Hillary in 2016?
If they don’t, and the Democrats were counting on them, the Democrats won’t see the White House for a while.
If they do, and Republicans think 2016 is a trip back to 2004, Democrats will see their first decade-plus hold of the Presidency since FDR and Truman.
Here’s the scary part. No one knows the answer. Campaigns will make their best guesses and poll the heck out of voters registered and voting only since 2008, and getting them to vote early where they can, but they can’t be sure.
Each party would be wise to campaign to a “worst case scenerio” for themselves, and if they wind up being wrong, it then becomes a bonus.
Just remember this when you decide to take polls as gospel. There’s a reason for the margin of error.
