Tim Kaine’s moment

The most recent Washington Post column from Paul Goldman and me looks at a few issues that might turn the Big Three swing states in 2016 (Florida, Ohio and Virginia). The deal brokered with Iran over its nuclear program could be one that tips at least two of those states — Florida and Ohio — to the GOP column.

And what of Virginia?

With two Democratic senators, Virginia is unique among Southern states. Since the Soviet Union’s collapse ended the Cold War-politics that dominated the national scene for four decades, only one Republican has been elected president: George W. Bush. His narrow Electoral College win saw him sweeping every Southern state, including Virginia.

The GOP’s vote gap in Virginia in 2012 was double the size of its Florida shortfall. The Republican Congress isn’t likely to block the president’s Iran agreement. But if enough key voters remain doubtful — a reasonable hypothesis at this stage — then Florida and Ohio must be considered more likely than Virginia to fall to the GOP.

Republicans must carry all three states to win in 2016. The Iran deal puts the spotlight on Sens. Kaine and Warner and, to a lesser extent, Gov. McAuliffe. How these three Democrats handle the issue will be watched closely by future delegates to the Democratic National Convention.

Why convention delegates? If Mrs. Clinton is looking for a running mate, Virginia has three to choose from. The most likely is Tim Kaine — and we’ve been saying that for quite some time.

If he can make a successful case for the Iran deal, his veep stock rises higher. With Kaine on the national Democratic ticket, the GOP’s job of flipping Virginia gets that much harder. Like him or loathe him, Mr. Kaine has yet to be beaten in the commonwealth. That’s going to matter a lot in 2016.

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