In our latest Washington Post piece, Paul Goldman and I caught up with former GOP Senate candidate Ed Gillespie and asked him what it will take for Republicans to win Virginia in 2016:
“It’s all but impossible for a Republican to win Virginia today without getting votes from traditionally non-Republican voters, and it is impossible to get those votes if you don’t ask for them,” explained Gillespie. When he first started in politics, there was no need for Republicans to approach these voters because Virginia ranked among the most reliably Republican states.
It is a familiar refrain, but delivered with more urgency. Republicans need to reach beyond their comfort zone in order to win statewide, and reach even farther during presidential years:
Gillespie suggests “Republicans have an opportunity to increase our share of the African-American vote, an important segment of our electorate that for too long has been written off by one party and taken for granted by the other.” Both parties would likely object to his categorization. But Gillespie is making an obvious point: for whatever reason, Republican voters are overwhelmingly white.
Exit polling gave Romney 6 percent of the African-American vote, typical for GOP presidential candidates in Virginia. The likely 2016 turnout will be 70 percent white, 20 percent African-American, with the rest mostly Hispanic. Can Republicans close the 2012 gap without demonstrating more appeal to the largest pool of “traditionally non-Republican voters?”
Moreover, the “working poor” is not a racial code word. It is disproportionately non-white due to educational disparities we’ve discussed in prior columns. Any policy prescriptions aimed at these voters will have to include a major education component – which is a big issue, particularly for women.
Gillespie makes a subtle point not yet appreciated in Republican circles. Women are Virginia’s key swing voters. They react negatively to a candidate who appears intolerant or uncaring. Image matters, a point Gillespie makes in his book.
And it will matter even more in 2016. Is Mr. Trump taking notes?
