I think armies give you power. Robb Stark had one, never lost a battle, and you defeated him all the same. – Tyrion Lannister, to his father, Tywin, on the late King in the North
I’ve seen a campaign do everything right…and still lose; I’ve seen a campaign seem to do everything wrong…and still win. In fact, I saw both at the same time (New Jersey Governor’s race, 1993). I’ve even seen a candidate win by double-digits after printing a campaign flyer…misspelling his own name.
That alone would be enough for me to declare the 28th House of Delegates Republican primary anything but over. Thankfully (for those of us who lean toward the challenger in that race), there are other reasons why Susan Stimpson, despite her wounds (yes, some self-inflicted), can still triumph on 9 June.
For starters, a large chunk of the 28th is her former Supervisory district, so she is hardly an unknown. Moreover, her successor in that district – Meg Bohmke – has also endorsed her, and is in fact knocking on doors for her. Contrary to what you may have heard and read elsewhere, Stimpson has some local backing.
Secondly, Howell’s campaign has kept the tax issue alive. This is probably the biggest surprise of the campaign. Normally, someone in Howell’s position (have to run with a recent and large tax increase on his record) would just smile and be happy if his challenger talked about anything else – and to be fair, the Stimpson campaign’s biggest weakness is when it has distracted itself from the tax issue. However, Howell’s attempt to neutralize himself on the tax issue with his claim to tax hikes “defeated” has done more than just dangle low-hanging fruit for yours truly. It has also enabled Stimpson and her fellow door-knockers to bring up the tax issue to anyone who has seen a Howell flyer…which is pretty much everyone in the 28th. In effect, Bill Howell may very well have saved the Stimpson campaign from itself.
We also have the divisions within the Stafford County GOP, the effects of which we won’t really know until the 9th. As bizarre as this sounds, the Stimpson-Howell race might be the tamer of the HoD battles between the Stafford County factions. Bad blood like that usually means endorsements can drive away support as much as build it (admittedly on both sides).
Is Bill Howell that favorite? Of course he is; he’s the incumbent speaker, after all. But that doesn’t make a race “over.” The Anglosphere is littered with recent surprise winners (Alberta PCs in 2012 – and to a lesser extent the NDP this year, British Columbia Liberals in 2013, Ontario Liberals last year, the UK Tories last month, etc.).
Then there was Christie Todd Whitman in 1993…
Time will tell if Stimpson’s small mistakes are more important than Howell’s large one. We’ll all know on the 9th of June – but not before then.
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