It turns out Jim Prentice’s tax increases really did destroy the Tory dynasty in Alberta (National Post):
The NDP has won its first majority government in Alberta by toppling the Progressive Conservative colossus that has dominated the province for more than four decades.
The party under leader Rachel Notley swept all 19 constituencies in Edmonton on Tuesday, made inroads in previously barren NDP territory in Calgary and Lethbridge, and added several seats in rural areas.
The Wildrose party was poised to take second place to form the official Opposition, while Premier Jim Prentice and his battered PCs trailed in third.
Prentice, Wildrose Leader Brian Jean and Liberal Leader David Swann were all elected.
The NDP win is a tectonic shift in Alberta politics, which has seen government change hands only four times since the Liberals won the first election when Alberta became a province in 1905.
Truth be told, I was expecting (or, perhaps, hoping) that Wildrose would bring down the PCs, but between them, the two center-right parties would have easily crushed the social democratic New Democrats.
But Prentice cut that center-right majority neatly in half with his tax hikes, and landed his party in third place.
However, this is no longer just about the dangers of tax increases to political fortunes.
For one thing, the Canadian province that is considered the most right-wing in the entire confederation has one of only two unabashedly left-wing governments (and the other, in Manitoba, is running on fumes). This could – stress, could – begin a tectonic shift in Canadian politics, wiping out the center-right achievements of Prime Minister Stephen Harper (who must face the voters in October).
Add to that Alberta’s position as the major exporter of oil to the US…(NP):
During the election campaign, she vowed to raise the corporate tax rate to 12 per cent, a move that will be hard to swallow for oil companies that are already reeling from a sea of red ink as oil prices fell from more than $100 a barrel last year to about $60 today, resulting in widespread layoffs and scores of project cancellations.
She said she would not lobby for the proposed Keystone XL pipeline to link Alberta’s oil deposits to refineries in Texas, and that she is against the Northern Gateway pipeline from Alberta to the British Columbia coast.
Suddenly the “inevitable” approval of Keystone looks a lot more evitable (especially if Harper loses). This will have less effect on the price of oil than people think (especially as most of Alberta’s oil already reaches us by rail), but it could be a serious problem for the Chinese Communist Party, which was counting on Northern Gateway for their future oil demands.
How does one say, “That’s gotta hurt” in Mandarin?
So, to sum up, a squishy Tory’s attempt to raise taxes on his constituents might just cut off North American oil for an aspiring superpower and make it more difficult for the already-arrived one, while potentially shifting the politics of our neighbor and largest trading partner heavily leftward.
Can any candidate for Delegate or State Senator claim that kind of impact?
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