The Alberta Conservatives did everything that Establishment-type Republicans (just a descriptor, not an epithet) down here would recommend. They junked an unpopular leader for a better face to lead the party and the province (Alberta Tories have governed the place since 1971 – a longer domination than the Rayburn-Albert-O’Neill-Foley era in the House). That leader (Jim Prentice) talked a great game about conservative policies – so much so that he convinced the right-wing Opposition Leader to defect to his party and take over half her cohorts in the Wildrose Party with her (National Post). Canadian punditry watched in amazement as Prentice appeared to clear the field of any viable opponents, then use the drop in oil prices (and provincial revenues) to create a crisis that he could refuse to let go to waste, criticizing his spendthrift predecessors along the way. Another coronation election looked certain.
Then Prentice proposed his budget, “with the largest tax hike since the late 1980s and almost no spending cuts” as Jesse Klein put it (NP). To be fair, this is where at least some Establishment-type Republicans would part company (although based on their rapturous reaction to Plan ’13 From Outer Space…).
The budget came down on Thursday. It took less than a week for the Tories’ inevitability to go up in smoke (NP).
An Insights West online poll of more than 600 Albertans has confirmed a startling Mainstreet automated telephone poll that suggested Monday the two parties are now in a dead heat.
If an election were held tomorrow, 31 per cent of decided voters would vote for the governing Progressive Conservatives, while 27 per cent would vote Wildrose, said Insight West vice-president Mario Canseco.
“When you factor in the margin of error, the findings are very consistent with what Mainstreet had,” Canseco said.
With an assigned margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points, the two parties are virtually tied, he said.
…
The poll sets Prentice’s approval rating at 29 per cent, just below his party at 31 per cent, with 60 per cent of Albertans saying they disapprove of his performance.
Political analyst David Taras said the shocking collapse in PC support reflected in the two back-to-back polls leave Prentice with a difficult decision regarding the election call.
“Do you fly the airplane into a torrent of anger over the budget and a virtual majority of Albertans not wanting an election at all?” Taras wondered. “That’s his choice.”
Indeed, the one advantage Prentice has is that he can choose to hold an election at any time before 2016, so he can “bottle it” and not call for a vote…although that rarely helps the incumbent in Westminster systems.
More to the point, the tax issue – considered by some to be a relic of a bygone era – is still powerful enough to turn a widely perceived coronation into a would-be cliffhanger in under seven days.
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