NYT: Jeb Bush Aims For Florida

jeb_bush_flagToday’s New York Times notes that GOP presidential contender Jeb Bush offers something relatively dangerous to Democratic aspirations in 2016 — namely, an ability to court the Hispanic vote.

Small problem.  Marco Rubio.

Mr. Bush has since devoted himself to fortifying the Republican Party across the state, but he has encountered a daunting roadblock: a changing electorate. Even as Republicans control every level of state government, they cannot control the increasing Democratic tinge of important groups of voters, including younger Cuban-Americans and the tens of thousands of people of Puerto Rican descent who have flocked to Orlando and other parts of central Florida in recent years.

Mr. Bush’s next steps are clear, advisers said. He must prevent Mr. Rubio from building a credible operation in the state; make the case that as a Spanish speaker with a Mexican-born wife, he can overcome demographics that might otherwise favor the Democratic nominee; and, lastly, construct a robust fund-raising operation that can collect the tens of millions it would cost Mr. Bush to win Florida in a primary and general election.

Bear in mind that the Florida GOP was recently rattled and shaken up, with key Bush allies being placed into core slots.  Florida has selected a winner-take-all primary for 15 March 2016, a condition that sets back potential challengers even further given Bush’s bona fides within the state.

Whether former Florida House Speaker and current U.S. Senator Marco Rubio is going to take this lying down — or heck, even run — remains in play.  Clearly Rubio is maneuvering to make a play somewhere (even if it is kingmaker in Florida).  The question remains whether or not it will be enough to make a difference in the presidential primary against not only Bush, but Texas Senator Ted Cruz who presumably will announce his bid for POTUS today at Liberty University in Lynchburg.

One thing to note here as well: fundraising.  Bush’s team is already talking in numbers that are dizzying for 2015 aspirations, much less the real contest in 2016.  Those numbers alone should be enough to give any presidential contender serious pause unless there is both a grassroots machine behind them and the personnel to capture their energy.  To date, Rubio might not have the latter; Cruz is demonstrating both qualities and quickly.

I suspect the real contest for hearts and minds will be Bush vs. Cruz.  Time will bear this out though.

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