GOP POTUS Nomination Power Rankings
Happy Valentine’s Day!
Returning to the Power Rankings now that 2014 mid terms are over.
These rankings reflect where I consider each candidate to be relative to the other top contenders in the only category that no one ever wanted to get in high school “Most Likely to Succeed.”
But in the Republican Presidential Nomination process, that’s the only one that matters. It’s a reflection of the way in which traditional, conservative people think as they decide on who to vote for once they reach the ballot box. For Republicans that usually means – the guy who almost won last time.
And since Mitt Romney – who was leading in almost every poll – dropped out, the rankings have changed.
But not much, except for one guy.
Why? Because polling reflects Name ID. Name ID is driven by advertising. Some advertising is free, some earned, and a lot is paid for by campaigns. That’s why campaigns raise money to increase media impressions. Hopefully positive media impressions. Otherwise, your Favorable to Unfavorable ratio goes bad. We’ll discuss that later – but remember Fave/Unfave. It matters.
12. Rick Santorum
Santorum won the Iowa Caucus in 2012 over Mitt Romney with almost 25% of the vote, but now is barely above the Bachmann line of 5%. (The Bachmann line is where you must be in Iowa to continue. Really 10% is a national benchmark since Senator John McCain won 13% in 2008) Santorum’s current 5% is a disaster.
11. Ohio Governor John Kasich
While in my personal top five, Kasich has to make a move soon if he wants to get in. Even though he is not announced yet, Kasich is still ahead of Santorum. The only way Kasich does well in Iowa is if he punts and goes straight to New Hampshire. He might play well there. The Iowa field is just too crowded for a credible run there. If he does skip Iowa, Kasich could gain a lot of economic conservatives by opposing ethanol mandates.
10. Texas Governor Rick Perry
Having undergone a mini-makeover with his new eyeglasses, Governor Perry is below the Bachmann line in Iowa and it’s hard to see a path to victory unless he punts on Iowa AND New Hampshire in favor of selective state strategy. Perry could saved money and pull off some upsets in order to pile up delegates. It will take a smart strategy to get Perry moving not just smart-looking eyeglasses.
9. Texas Senator Ted Cruz
Cruz is barely about the Bachmann line and not likely to gain much traction. He does not come across well on TV or radio. In other words, Cruz has a face for radio and voice for email. It’s hard to see him connecting. The other night while watching the news, my wife looked at Cruz and said, “Eww…who’s that? He looks sleazy.” Ted might need some eyeglasses.
8. Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal
Jindal should not be in the top ten, but he checks a few boxes that Republican primary voters might like.
1. Competence 2. Intelligence 3. Diversity
He recently hired Romney Communications Director from 2008 and 2012, Gail Gitcho. That could help him up and moving since he is below the Bachmann line for now. Jindal, a Catholic convert, is an expert on health care and education policy which could propel him should the winds move in that direction. Not likely to crack 10% or the top 5, but he’s young and would make an excellent Veep pick.
7. Florida Senator Marco Rubio
Full disclosure – I like Marco – he got me on Facebook and was my first Friend there. MFFBF.
Rubio has a bright future and will do well. The question is can he raise enough money to keep him going when the going gets tough. No one will want to attack him, so he has some room to run if he finds his lane. While most Republicans will erroneously translate his Cuban heritage in Hispanic votes, he’ll still get some of those votes. Now, were Rubio from a Mexican background and the primaries hit Mexican heavy states, he could move up. Iowa and New Hampshire are the first states. He might choose to start in other states in order to gain delegates and power. He’s hired top South Carolina strategist Terry Sullivan, so watch the Palmetto state. It’s the South’s answer to Chicago politics.
6. Dr. Ben Carson
Dr. Carson is clearly the most interesting candidate in the race because he’s polling at 10% in Iowa, has never held elective office, and is a black Republican who can take on the Affordable Care Act without being instantly discredited. What was the most important issue in the summer of 2007? Health care. Then Iraq took center stage heading into the 2008 New Year.
Carson comes across well on TV and radio. If he stays above 10%, don’t right him off. He might just be able to have a grassroots online fundraising apparatus that could sustain him. Can he hire well? Can he recruit volunteers? Never know….
5. New Jersey Governor Chris Christie
Christie will be able to raise the money to make it through the first four or five states, but has to finish well in Iowa or New Hampshire. The guy attracts a TON of free and earned media with his blunt talk and entertaining demeanor. If he gains traction, GOP primary voters will be inundated with direct mail, emails, social media ads reminding them of Christie’s embrace of Obama during the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy.
He’ll be ready for that. Whether it moves voters is the critical part of Christie’s strategy and tactics. Time – and polling – will soon tell if he stays Chris Christie or whether he softens his image up a bit.
4. Kentucky Senator Rand Paul
Paul has a real shot at the nomination if he can finish in the top three in Iowa. Currently he trails Ben Carson – but barely so. His social media and young voter grassroots could create an upset early, but that’s going to be tough in the most socially conservative Iowa. Rand has a strong place in the Republican field, the question for him is whether or not he can withstand the early states and pick up the voters of candidates who drop out.
Paul’s candidacy reminds me of the guy who finishes fourth in the first round in a convention and steadily moves up as people decide he’s the most likable of the pack. His goal might not be to win Iowa but to place or show.
3. Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker
Wow – has this guy shot up the rankings and polls lately. But it’s still 2015 and we’re six months from the first debates. Undeniable is how hot the Walker stock is right now.
Lots of questions remain – can he build on the growth he is experiencing? Can he out together a credible team? Can he raise enough money?
More importantly, can Walker connect with Republican primary voters in multiple states at the same time? That’s hard to do when people don’t know you that well.
The lack of a college degree does not hurt as much as people think. Why? Most people in the country don’t have college degrees. Politics is math. If Walker can add up some victories early, he could make a move. History says otherwise.
2. Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush
Name ID, Name ID, Name ID. Jeb was a great governor by most accounts.
He’ll have to counter Bush fatigue and “establishment” brand. He’ll make it out of Iowa with over 10%, then onto New Hampshire and eventually his home state of Florida. Bush will have the money, but will he have the hearts of the Republican primary voters who desperately want a win in 2016?
Probably not, but never bet against a Bush. Especially in South Carolina. Watch South Carolina.
1. Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee.
Yes, I am serious. Huckabee has the best chance of winning because he finished second in 2008, has a fundraising and grassroots base in each of the primary states, and stayed relevant with GOP primary voters with his show on Fox News.
Look, Republicans ALWAYS pick the guy who finished second last time. Since Mitt Romney dropped out, that silver goes to Mike Huckabee.
Who’s leading the Real Clear Politics average in Iowa? Mike Huckabee. He probably does a drive by in New Hampshire in favor of slugging it out in the other primary states where is more likely to cobble together enough delegates to get him to Cleveland.
Folks like Mike. That goes a very long way in politics. You don’t have to win all the primaries, just enough to keep going in this war of political attrition.
Huckabee is in the best position to do that.
If you say “Well, it’s early.”
No. It’s not. It’s never early in politics. Every poll matters. Every news cycle matters.
There’s no vaccination from that reality.
Cross posted at Chris Saxman.com
