by Trixie Averill
From America to China, air quality is a hot topic these days. There are ideas aplenty about how to enhance it. And wouldn’t you know it, our government in its infinite (lack of) wisdom is taking the wrong approach at every turn. First, the White House endorsed a controversial strategy to curb carbon emissions by placing onerous regulations on new and existing power plants. As bad as that business-stifling approach and legally-questionable tack is, though, it may pale in comparison to another parallel U.S. Environmental Protection Agency air quality campaign.
The EPA push to lower ground-level ozone standards through a regulatory re-write actually stands as a potentially more pernicious danger to the American economy than even the odious power plant plan. And just like the power plant proposal, when it comes to the ozone overreach, that dog don’t hunt.
The EPA (otherwise known as the Employment Prevention Agency) is considering lowering the ground-level ozone standards from the current 75 parts per billion (ppb) threshold to 65-70 ppb. That might appear a small shift on its face. But that change would have devastating economic effects. Here’s why: Many urban, suburban and rural localities across Virginia would struggle to meet a lower standard. Anticipated cost consequences from imposing a lower standard could make the pending ozone regulation the most expensive in American history, while harming the state economy and thousands of working Virginians.
The chart above links to the most recent annual state report on Air Quality and Air Pollution Control Policies of the Commonwealth of Virginia that is prepared by the state’s environmental agency and presented each year to the Governor and General Assembly. Its data comes from 39 ambient air quality monitoring sites around the state. Its conclusions are unambiguous: A ground-level ozone standard of 65 ppb would be bad for Northern Virginia, Hampton Roads, Central Virginia and less populous areas like Albemarle, Caroline, Charles City, Frederick, Page, Shenandoah and Stafford counties. Considering that, Virginians have reason to be distressed by the fact that even as state “ozone trends continue to show improvement in air quality,” according to the 2014 annual report, “the air quality standards that the Commonwealth must attain are becoming increasingly stringent.”
Several Virginia communities – including portions of Northern Virginia, Hampton Roads, Richmond and other locales – have fallen short of compliance at varying points in recent years. Some have even been designated non-attainment areas. That means they have exceeded the existing 75 ppb threshold as few as four days over a three-year period. Those isolated overages come with serious consequences. States with “non-attainment” communities that don’t meet acceptable ozone levels are required to offer a “state implementation plan” detailing corrective steps that will be taken. As the chart above shows, monitors in Arlington and Fairfax counties have recorded ozone levels of 79 ppb in recent years. Those measurements already exceed existing limits. So it goes without saying that a lower standard is almost certain to put more of the state in that danger zone. If that happens, it is likely to set off a chain reaction of events damaging to Virginia’s economy. For factories, that could mean a mandate to retrofit facilities with expensive filtration equipment. Companies with vehicle fleets, as well as individual drivers, could be required to undergo rigorous emissions testing so they can operate those vehicles. And localities in non-attainment areas could be forced to stop community-enriching economic development projects just to meet overly burdensome clean air rules.
Those additional costs could have devastating consequences for thousands of Virginians who work manufacturing, natural resources, and construction jobs. Statewide, the National Association of Manufacturers estimates new ozone regulations could cost Virginia $46 billion in gross state product loss between 2017 and 2040 and cause the loss of more than 36,000 jobs a year. It would also expose the state to $11 billion in compliance costs, reduce household income for many families, cost drivers more to own a personal vehicle, and increase consumer utility costs.
And that’s just the Virginia price tag. Imagine how destructive a new ground-level ozone rule would be in states across the nation. In September, The Heritage Foundation’s Daily Signal ominously noted that some observers fear a lowered ozone rule “could be the most expensive regulation in U.S. history.” The publication also pointed out that implementing a 60 ppb limit could cost $90 billion per year by the EPA’s own estimate. One indication of how harmful new ozone standards would be came from the man whose administration is pursuing them. President Barack Obama in 2011 directed the EPA to withdraw its pending ozone rulemaking. The president’s recognition of “the importance of reducing regulatory burdens and regulatory uncertainty, particularly as our economy continues to recover” motivated that decision. Three years on, the nation’s economy is still in recovery. Tighter ozone regulations would needlessly strain our rebounding prosperity. The federal government ought to be encouraging businesses instead of treating them like an old Cur dog. More troubling: If Washington can impose these job-killing regulations, how do we Katy bar the door against further damage from federal intrusion?
Does the potential benefit of that action outweigh the near certain economic harm new ozone rules would cause? Those who want more restrictive limits cite inconclusive science to claim that smog is harmful to human health. The fact of the matter is scientific research is very split on that question. What is not in dispute, even by the EPA, is that more stringent ozone rules will cost billions. That expense is something our economy, and its working men and women, just can’t afford.
Trixie Averill is a past state director of Americans for Prosperity and a longtime Republican activist from the Roanoke Valley
