The Sarvis Factor

There’s a bit of a stir about Politico’s new piece on how Ed Gillespie used social media in new, better and more effective ways during the late Senate campaign. That’s all well and good. Quite good, because some of those lessons may be used in the coming 2015 elections.

But before we wander too far down the path of clicks and likes, let’s consider another wrinkle in the election: the role of Robert Sarvis.

Usually, third-party candidates don’t make much of a difference in statewide contests. Paul Goldman and I write in the Washington Post that this time, Sarvis may have been the key:

The Libertarian’s 53,000 voters mostly came from younger voters, particularly white males, unhappy with President Obama’s leadership. They generally leaned independent. Very few (almost none, in fact) were Democrats. But a good chunk did label themselves Republicans.

Exit polls on fringe candidates are to be read with abundant caution. Yet it is clear the Sarvis Republican voter wanted to protest President Obama’s leadership. If Gillespie had been the only option, they most likely would have backed the GOP nominee. But Sarvis gave them a second option.

The result? Instead of drowning in anti-Obama tidal wave running from the wind turbines off the Virginia coast all the way to the Alaskan oil fields, Mark Warner found a life-preserver in the Libertarian candidate.

In other words, Mark Warner owes his narrow win to Sarvis. Not because he was a better candidate with better ideas, but because the Gillespie campaign never managed to close the deal with people who lean GOP, but cast their ballots for the Libertarian.

My Libertarian friends will disagree with this idea and some Republicans will use it as a reason to hate on Libertarians. Both will miss the point. The Sarvis candidacy offered an alternative to the major party candidates. Enough independents found that alternative appealing to give Mark Warner his margin of victory.

The task for Virginia Republicans, in addition to refining their click and like strategies, is to find a way to bring those who lean their way in statewide contests — but don’t vote for them — into the fold.

That will take some ingenuity. They had best get started now.

And as a side note…that Warner had to rely on a third-party candidate for anything will irritate him more than would an outright loss. At least then he could make another run at the Executive Mansion. But surviving, thanks to Sarvis? That will chap his hide for years to come.