The next few days should provide finality to the 2014 elections.
In all likelihood, following the statewide canvass of voters, U.S. Senator Mark Warner will remain the commonwealth’s senior senator, despite being given his most serious political challenge since he lost to John Warner in 1996.
That said, the Warner “victory” is a testimony to the mood of the electorate – and that includes a deep schism between Virginia voters. Warner did not get 50% of the vote – and he ought to remember and be reminded of that every day for the next six years.
But there’s been a trend that we’ve seen fermenting for years, so it will come as no surprise to anyone reading this that there are only four areas that Democrats need to run up big numbers and they win the election:
• Arlington-Alexandria-Fairfax County
• Albemarle-Charlottesville
• Richmond-Henrico
• Norfolk-Portsmouth-Newport News-Hampton
The numbers this election are absolutely astounding and bear a closer look.
Warner’s margins in a scant few localities absolutely obliterate Gillespie
Fairfax County: +53.5K
Alexandria: +17.5K
Arlington County: +31.5K
Albemarle-Charlottesville: +9.5k
Richmond: +27K
Henrico: +13K
Newport News: +9K
Hampton: +13K
Norfolk: +17K
Portsmouth: +10K
(h/t: vpap.org)
Gillespie won in a very big way nearly everywhere else across Virginia, notably in Hanover (+12K) and Stafford (+6K) but not nearly big enough in Virginia Beach (+5.5K) or Chesapeake (a handful of votes) to overcome spotting Warner +200K votes.
This is a serious concern and it’s not going away. And it’s math, so it doesn’t lie. And, just think, this was a down election with low turnout among women, minorities and 18-29 year olds.
Virginia is now a modern state. The economy is attractive. The port is bustling. And even Warner and Kaine (begrudgingly), recognize the need to tap into our energy resources.
God, gays and guns just isn’t going to cut it in modern Virginia – and I’m not saying that Gillespie ran that sort of campaign (his loss by only 15K votes is testimony to it) – but all Republicans are still running into serious headwinds in the urban environment where the liberals have done a good job of convincing the population that the GOP has nothing to offer.
There is only one way to change that – time and a concerted effort at addressing the difficult urban issues; offering practical, proven, conservative solutions that improve lives.
Republicans do best when we demonstrate a concern for social justice and a fanatical commitment to freedom for all – where a person can make the most of the opportunity afforded to them.
We do this, and these margins will fall in the cities. And if we stay united as a party (which is possible when we are committed to our principles), as we generally did this cycle, we will win elections.
This post is just stating the facts. Over the coming weeks, we’ll get into the meat of the matter, particularly with guest posts and interviews.
But the message voters keep sending is loud and clear – and it will take leadership and innovative ideas to make the change in time for 2016 and beyond. Of course, it kind of starts with the choices made for leadership at the RPV next month, the next General Assembly session, and state elections next year.
Let’s get back to work.
