There will be any number of theories as to what happened in Virginia last night, and I suspect that in some Republican quarters, people will be on the lookout for people who voted for Robert Sarvis (and have unkind things to say to them).
Scapegoating can be cathartic. But it also solves nothing. The invincible Mark Warner was shown to be entirely human and at the mercy of a national mood. The notoriously thin-skinned Warner has to be shocked, puzzled and infuriated that voters came damned close to sending him packing.
He has a choice: actually become the guy his press releases said he was or sulk. Being that he is now a member of the Senate minority, he will have ample opportunity to reinvent his Senate career. His added incentive to do so? Virginia’s junior Senator, Tim Kaine, is openly auditioning for the 2016 Democratic ticket. To a lesser degree, so is Kaine’s predecessor, Jim Webb. Warner is no longer the big dog on the Democratic side. He has competition from within for the national spotlight. That has to eat him up. But it also should motivate him. If not, he will be left behind.
What of Ed Gillespie? He came close to forcing the entire political commentariat to eat crow. But close isn’t a win. He is well positioned for another statewide run, but it’s too early to say it will be for governor in 2017. The line forms behind Mark Obenshain, and perhaps others, for that contest (and where would Gillespie’s staff go? They were Mark’s people, too…). If Ed Gillespie wants to make another run, he needs to follow the rest of the Warner script and stay engaged in Virginia politics.
The one thing that is clear from last night is that the new star of the state’s congressional delegation is Barbara Comstock. She won in the face of a Democratic operation that began nasty and had national backing, but faded badly down the stretch. She was a tireless, relentless campaigner. She could hold the seat for a long time, but I suspect her ambitions, and the dreams of others, will inevitably combine into a statewide run.
And yes…there could be a recount in the Senate race. I’m not entirely sure it will change the numbers substantially (recounts in the 2005 and 2013 AG contests didn’t).
But hey…I’ve been wrong before, and prefer my crow cold.
