Warner at +4 UPDATED x 2

That’s what a poll released to the Daily Caller — minus the data — is telling us today:

Republican Ed Gillespie is within striking distance of pulling off an upset in Virginia, according to a new poll provided exclusively to The Daily Caller.

Incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Warner is leading Gillespie 44 percent to 40 percent in the GOP-leaning Vox Populi poll. Libertarian Robert Sarvis has 5 percent in the poll.

Well…maybe.

Like the Roanoke College poll that came out a few days ago, Vox Populi earned a gentleman’s “C” in Nate Silver’s pollster ratings. So take the numbers for what you will (publishing the cross tabs would have been extremely helpful in determining who the undecideds are and how they might move over the closing days see Update 2 below).

The private polling numbers I’ve heard put the race in single digits, too — some higher than the Vox poll, some lower. But again, no one was willing to share the actual data.

But as I wrote Thursday, there’s every reason to expect the numbers would tighten. The climate favors it, and so does history.

Even so, the contest is now, as it always has been, Mark Warner’s to lose.

Update

Christopher Newport University’s polling unit has its own set of numbers out and they show Warner up 51-44:

While Warner’s share of the vote remains similar to the Wason Center’s October 7 survey, in which he had 51%, Gillespie’s share has grown from 39% to 44%. The numbers of both undecided voters and supporters of Libertarian Robert Sarvis have shrunk since the earlier poll, accounting for Gillespie’s increased support. As it has the entire election season, Warner’s lead rests upon a broad political foundation. He continues to show solid support from Democrats and liberals, but also a sizeable level of support from moderate and conservative voters. Warner is in a stronger position with Democrats (97%) than Gillespie is with Republicans (89%), and has the support of 54% of Independents, compared with 41% for Gillespie. Warner more than doubles Gillespie among ideological moderates, 65% to 30%. A very large majority of ideological conservatives back Gillespie (84%), but a significant segment favors Warner (12%). Warner also continues to hold a sizeable lead among women (53% to 43%), and carries
the male vote (50% to 45%). Warner leads Gillespie in the “Golden Crescent” from Northern Virginia to Richmond to Hampton Road, and trails him only in Southside/Southwest Virginia. His biggest lead is in Richmond/Central Virginia, where he has a 62% to 34% advantage over Gillespie. Gillespie leads Warner in Southside/Southwest, 55% to 41%, a region where Warner never reached 50% and has lost support during the course of the election, according to Wason Center polling.

More material to work with, but a similar result — the race has tightened and the final result will be in the single digits.

Update 2

The topline numbers on the Vox poll can be found here. Worth noting from the write-up:

Warner is narrowly beating Gillespie with Independents 38 to 37 percent, with Sarvis picking up 10 percent of their vote. There is a gender gap with Warner winning women 47 to 37 percent and Gillespie winning men 44 to 41 percent. Gillespie is performing the strongest in the West where he is up 55 to 38 percent and Warner is strongest in the Northern Virginia suburbs where he is up 47 to 39 percent. The survey also shows young voters breaking 37-31 in favor of Gillespie. Millennials’ growing dissatisfaction with President Obama and support for Republican candidates has been noted in other states as well.

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