Warner’s chance, Gillespie’s surprise

Paul Goldman and I have a new column up at the Washington Post that is sure to make just about everyone upset.

The headline is provocative: Mark Warner could very well be a big winner on election night — but not for the reasons his partisans think. His first challenge, though, is to actually win. And the grapevine was buzzing yesterday about Ed Gillespie.

The Gillespie campaign would not confirm specifics (of course), but they are confident about their chances next Tuesday. Paul and I checked both sides of the political fence to see what was happening with absentee voting. Both sides agree it’s low — very low. But they disagree on who is ahead in the early returns. Democrats say the numbers don’t favor Gillespie. But they also don’t say they favor Warner.

For a popular incumbent with a huge cash advantage running against a rookie challenger who is still largely unknown, that’s not a good sign.

As Paul and I wrote:

Warner backers long ago stopped predicting a 20-point victory. But the published polls still show the popular Democrat with an impressive lead despite a GOP headwind. The last time a similarly situated “invulnerable” Democrat lost re-election was in 1972. Readers know we have been unimpressed by Gillespie’s campaign. This hasn’t changed. But we concede an anti-Obama protest vote could be brewing, fueled by late-deciding voters previously uninterested in casting a ballot. They would be underrepresented in the published polls. This can only help Gillespie.

A closer-than-expected final margin wouldn’t surprise us. But this doesn’t mean Gillespie wins. It will instead point to Republicans regaining control of the Senate as the television coverage moves to later time zones.

In my discussions with folks over the last few weeks, the consensus is that should Warner win, it will be narrow — 3-6 points.

But we cannot discount the possibility of a Republican wave. If it’s big enough, it could capsize Warner, too.

The problem with such waves is that they are impossible to see until they are on top of you. And bitter experience has taught me that when Republicans start talking about doing great things on election day, I cringe. Jerry Kilgore…George Allen (twice)…Mitt Romney…Ken Cuccinelli…

In our piece, Paul and I stick with the idea that Warner wins. Narrow or enormous is irrelevant. If Republicans win back the Senate, Warner gets the opportunity to reinvent himself and actually become what his press releases say he is — the guy who reaches across the aisle and gets things done.

And then he can dust off his dream of making a run for the White House.

He has to survive Tuesday first, of course. If the Republican murmurings I’m hearing are true, then Mr. Warner could find himself wondering where in the hell all that water came from. And I’ll eat crow.

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