The October Collapse of John Foust

Trouble started right at the end of September, when the John Foust campaign touted an internal poll for the Demcoratic House Majority showing them trailing by 2 points with vague numbers and no crosstabs to truly demonstrate where they got those numbers. But that news was quickly wiped out when an poll for the Republican Congressional Leadership Fund showed Barbara Comstock leading by a whopping 12 points.

October 1st – Foust’s campaign claims they raised “a record” $1 million in the previous quarter – but that story is subdued by the fact that Comstock had done the same.

October 9th – The roof caves in on Foust as the DCCC pulls $2.8 million in advertising out of the race.

October 15th – John Foust’s earlier fundraising claims end up being lies as the media highlights that he only raised around $856,000 and required a $150,000 personal loan to get over the $1 million mark. Meanwhile, Barbara Comstock raised more than $1.2 million over the same period, a record for the 10th district. Comstock ended with more cash on hand and no debt, while Foust’s $641k on hand is nearly wiped out by $550,000 in loans to himself.

Between October 1st and October 15th – John Foust only raised $192,000 compared to Barbara Comstock’s $252,000. Foust only had $147,000 on hand for the last three weeks of the campaign compared to over $692,000 for Comstock.

Since the 15th – Foust has received just over $18,000 in large dollar contributions according to FEC filings while Comstock has filed over $40,000.

Then there’s this week:

October 20thThe Washington Post publishes a brutal account on Foust’s campaign, saying Foust “evokes winces from those watching him,” routinely “appears unprepared,” and “is not widely expected to beat Comstock.”

“But here’s the rub: Foust is not a very polished candidate. Even his most ardent supporters say so. His appearance — mustache, square glasses, oversized jackets — doesn’t seem to have changed much through the decades. He meanders toward his points, and his ‘uhhs’ and ‘ahhs’ during debates and in interviews evoke winces from those watching him. He sometimes seems more comfortable talking about sidewalk improvements than foreign policy or the federal budget.”

October 21stCitizens United releases a poll showing Barbara Comstock leading John Foust by 16 points.

October 21stThe Sun Gazette, which endorsed Foust for Supervisor in 2011, endorses Comstock for Congress:

“Throughout the hard-fought campaign this summer and fall, only one of the candidates has shown the potential of living up to Wolf’s legacy and of having what it takes to survive in the rough-and-tumble world that is national politics today. Only one candidate seems comfortable on the stump and in the debate hall. That candidate is Barbara Comstock. Comstock has worked on Capitol Hill – both as a senior aide to Wolf and as a chief investigative counsel for the U.S. House of Representatives. Although that kind of experience isn’t a prerequisite for a member of Congress, she knows what it takes to succeed in Washington. Comstock is familiar with the sprawling 10th District, which stretches from McLean to the West Virginia border and south through Manassas and parts of Prince William County.”

October 21stThe Washington Times endorses Comstock for Congress:

“In the legislature, Mrs. Comstock stood up to the unions by drafting the law that now shields employees from being harassed by labor organizers who improperly obtain worker phone numbers and email addresses from employers. She proposed a bill that would have tied the state’s mass-transit funding to objective performance measures, requiring the bureaucracy to work to get the public’s money. It’s a novel concept, one that ought to spread to Capitol Hill.”

October 22ndThe Winchester Star endorses Comstock for Congress:

“She also knows her way around politics. Her Democratic opponent, earlier this campaign season, said of Mrs. Comstock, ‘I don’t think she’s even had a real job.’ We beg to differ; so does her resume. Among her myriad positions and career achievements: law partner, co-founder of an eponymous public-policy firm, campaign researcher, Justice Department official under President George W. Bush, investigative counsel and then senior counsel to the House Committee on Government Reform, two-term delegate in the Virginia House, senior aide to Mr. Wolf… and wife and mother of three children.”

October 22ndThe Loudoun Times endorses Comstock for Congress:

“In her interview with the Times-Mirror editorial board, Comstock moved beyond touting herself as the polished, political operative. Rather, she cited assets and resources in Northern Virginia as solutions that Republicans and Democrats, liberals and conservative alike could embrace in non-partisan decisions. Comstock suggested that she could facilitate agreements around these assets from the state’s technology and business communities, as well as its universities…

“This is why she deserves the nod over John Foust, her opponent from the Democratic Party who currently serves as a Fairfax County supervisor. Foust is a dedicated public servant, but lacks the legislative experience and familiarity with national issues to address the nation’s many problems.”

And now comes word that John Foust has had to cancel nearly a quarter of a million in ads!

Things aren’t looking good for John Foust. The wheels are coming off. While Comstock continues to rack up endorsements across the district, her campaign is outworking his on the ground. She’s winning on the issues just as much as she’s winning in fundraising. And while Foust is cancelling ad buys, the Comstock campaign is still expanding.

With 12 days to go, there’s momentum in the Barbara Comstock camp, and nomentum with John Foust.

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