Could Virginia be the 2014 surprise?

Just about every national election (presidential or midterm) has that one result no one saw coming, the one that stuns pundit and politician alike, the how-in-the-h*ll-did-that-happen election. In 1984, Senator Walter Huddleston (D-KY) was beaten at the last minute by then-unheard-of Mitch McConnell. Four years later, West Virginia surprised everyone (including themselves) by bouncing Governor Arch Moore, Jr. In 1996, Bob Kerrey’s Nebraska machine broke down completely as Chuck Hagel pulled out an upset Senate win. If anything, the 21st Century has seen more of these than its predecessor: Sonny Purdue tripping up Georgia Governor Roy Barnes in 2002, George W. Bush painting New Mexico red two years later, Obama carrying Indiana in 2008, Michael Bennett sneaking past Ken Buck in 2010, and – probably the most stunning – Rick Berg leading every poll in North Dakota and losing the election to Heidi Heitkamp anyway.

So which election this year is most likely to be the surprise? With so many races already too close to call (and Charles Baker scoring a healthy lead over Martha Coakley in the Massachusetts Governor’s race), it may very well be Ed Gillespie that pulls off the upset of the year. Here are the things in his favor.

A dramatic change in the perception of his opponent: One needs something dramatic to change how voters perceive an incumbent Senator and former governor…but accusations of using a federal judgeship to keep a fellow Democrat in the State Senate could do just that to Mark Warner. Personally, the fact that Warner felt CGI (they of the Obamacare website botch) was still a decent patronage option is more deeply troubling to me, but the point is clear to voters; this isn’t the above-it-all Mark Warner anymore (if it ever was).

Lack of attention: There hasn’t been (as of this writing: just after noon on the 24th of October) a single poll since news of Warnergate came to light. With so many other races getting nationwide attention, that may be understandable, but it also ensures that any movement will not be noticed.

The president’s approval rating: Traditionally, Senate candidates of the incumbent’s party have trouble scoring above this metric. Warner’s prior reputation gave him the impression that he was the exception, but the above shreds that image and argument. It’s very possible that Warner could fall back to the Obama approval number now.

Finally, ticket-mates over-performing: Not only has Barbara Comstock assiduously turned what was expected to be a close 10th District race into a laugher, but next door in the 11th, Suzanne Scholte (full disclosure: a friend from my China e-Lobby days) is giving Gerry Connolly some unexpected headaches. That could greatly cut into Warner’s advantage in Northern Virginia. Whatever plus Warner had in Hampton Roads is eroding thanks to the near-perfect re-election campaign of Scott Rigell (none of the other races appear competitive, and for that matter neither does Rigell’s anymore). With Republicans far more energized than Democrats in those two regions, the rest of the Commonwealth (where Gillespie has the advantage) could turn the tide.

In short, you have nearly everything needed in Virginia for the perfect storm of an upset, the kind of race that sneaks up on everybody until November itself…by which point folks could well be looking at Senator-elect Gillespie and wondering, “How the h*ll did that happen?”

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