More poll data show a Warner lead, and a Warner ceiling

Christopher Newport University has a new set of Senate poll numbers out and the numbers still show Mark Warner with a 51-39 lead over Ed Gillespie:

While Warner’s share of the vote remains similar to the Wason Center’s September 10 survey, in which he had 53%, Gillespie’s share has grown from 31% to 39%. The share of both undecided voters and supporters of Libertarian Robert Sarvis have shrunk since our September poll, accounting for Gillespie’s increased support. In the September poll, 60% of voters said they didn’t know enough about Gillespie to decide.
Warner’s lead continues to rest upon solid support from Democrats and liberals, but also a sizeable level of support from moderate and conservative voters. Warner is in a stronger position with Democrats (94%) than Gillespie is with Republicans (88%), and has the support of 50% of Independents, compared with 29% for Gillespie. Ideological moderates break for Warner over Gillespie, 59% to 30%. A majority of ideological conservatives back Gillespie (82%) but a significant segment favors Warner (13%). Warner also continues to hold a sizeable lead among women (57% to 34%), but splits the male vote with Gillespie (44% to 45%). Warner leads Gillespie in all regions, but is below 50% in South/Southwest, where he has 47% of the vote.

It all seems plausible. Republicans are coming home and Mr. Sarvis is vanishing before our eyes. There is an important caveat. In CNU’s September poll, the party split was 35D/26R/35I. This time around, the split is 36D/34R/27I. That’s a big swing from independent to GOP.

So…the model changes, Gillespie gains by the same amount as the change, while Warner slips a bit. It seems like noise.

But there may be a signal in there somewhere: Warner’s vote has a ceiling. In early September, CNU showed Warner at 53 percent. Roanoke College had Warner at 46 percent in late September. The next day, Quinnipiac has Warner at 48 percent (and at 50 in a head-to-head with Gillespie). Now CNU shows Warner at 51.

In all the polls, Warner has just about all the Democratic votes he can get. Gillespie has some room to grow among self-identified Republicans, though Warner’s GOP bloc of supporters is still significant. There are a few Gillespie opportunities here and there among independents, but even if all the undecided voters break for him in the CNU poll, and all of Sarvis’ GOP backers go for Gillespie, he still comes up short.

Ed Gillespie will beat expectations in November. But a Gillespie win will require everything to break his way and then some.

But perhaps now we can more easily understand why Mark Warner has been campaigning hard, and, more recently, going negative in his ads.

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