Republicans have the clear majority of Governorships, and will pick up a few this year. But that’s probably it. 31 Governorships is likely the best we can hope for, but still not too shabby.
House of Representatives majority is a cool 233-199 for Republicans at the moment. Only a dozen and a half of those seats are considered even close, and almost all of them are Democrat-held seats. A nudge from the wind could pick up a dozen seats for Republicans this year, but there is no way the GOP loses ground in the House.
US Senate is much more interesting. With a likely pickup in South Dakota, 11 other Senate races are deemed competitive (no, Warner and Gillespie isn’t one of the ones the pundits deem competitive…..yet). Here’s the fun. 9 of those 11 seats are Democrat-held seats. That’s a whole lot of incumbents to be toeing the tossup line. If Republicans win 5 of them, they own the Senate. Any more than that and it’s icing on the cake.
West Virginia, Louisiana, Arkansas, Georgia looking good, and North Carolina and Iowa close but still good, Republicans are ending the summer in pretty good position to capture the Senate.
Obama’s job approval is at record lows around 40% and disapproval at record highs at 54% and right track/wrong track polls at 25/67, the ground is ripe for these Republican gains to become a wave very quickly.
And Mark Warner knows how soft his lead is and how quickly this becomes a 5 point race once real money starts being spent.
Roughly three months until Election Day, the traditional shellacking of an unpopular second-term President in the midterm elections is all but assured.
Get ready for the Democrats to launch their all-out assault on the “war on women” and usual distractions.
The issue this year is Omama, his record and Democrats support for the Obama record.
Any Republican who talks about anything else is helping Democrats distract from it.
