First the disclaimers…yes, it’s a poll of registered voters. Yes, it’s mid-summer and most folks are paying attention to other things (I certainly have been). And of course, it’s a Roanoke College poll, which causes some people to dismiss the results out of hand.
But it’s hard to look at these numbers and not feel that Mark Warner has reason to smile:
Warner leads Gillespie and Sarvis among liberals (78%-1%-5%) and moderates (56%-9%-5%) as well as Democrats (82%-0%-3%) and Independents (39%-21%-6%). He trails among conservatives (20%-50%-5%) and Republicans (12%-57%-4%), but his showing in those groups is respectable. Warner’s favorable rating is 65 percent among moderates and 55 percent among Independents, and he even does relatively well among conservatives (37%) and Republicans (35%).
Gillespie is still unfamiliar to both conservatives (19% favorable; 67% don’t know enough to have an opinion) and Republicans (18% favorable; 67% don’t know) to say nothing of moderates (3%-79%) and Independents (8%-77%). He can take some solace in knowing that Independents report they tend to narrowly lean toward Republicans (38%) over Democrats (36%) in elections.
Partisans will point to their favorite number and call it a sure sign of eventual victory (Warner below 50 percent? Trouble ahead! Warner taking 12 percent GOP support? He’s a cinch!).
We can compare this to a Rasmussen poll of likely voters from a month ago. That poll showed Warner up by 17 points.
