R. Emmett Tyrrell once declared conservatism to be “America’s longest-dying political movement,” i.e., it has been proclaimed to be on its way out for nearly 50 years. The Republican Party has an equally long “death watch” starting on Election Night 1964 when so many television reporters announced, “The Republican Party is Dead”, that we don’t know who coined the phrase first. Twelve months later, a Republican was Mayor of New York for the first time in 20 years, and three years after that the GOP won began a 5-for-6 run in presidential elections.
In my lifetime, the Republican Party has been allegedly killed by Watergate, the election of 1976, Iran-Contra, the election of 1992, demographic changes, and either Barack Obama election. This time, we have a new would-be killer: the Metro Silver line.
That’s right, according to Dante Chinni, Metro’s Silver line will destroy the Republican Party by making Loudoun County more densely populated (Politico):
There are two true facts. Loudoun is growing more densely populated and more Democratic. And the Silver Line seems poised to make both those facts even truer.
If that happens, the new Metro line won’t just be changing the commuting patterns of the D.C. area, it will be fundamentally changing the national political storyline. And Loudoun, one of those crucial swing counties in a swing state, may become just another reliably blue piece of the Democrats’ electoral map.
Folks who live outside Loudoun might be confused to know that they are mere pawns to the D.C. suburb’s electorate. Of course, that’s not really what Chinni claims. Rather, he sees and notes a trend between more densely packed jurisdictions and preference for Democrats. Yet he never discusses why that is the case, instead he just blithely assumes urbanization equals love of big government. Now, this is an equation that has been proclaimed by politicians and pundits going all the way back to Jefferson (which is yet another reason why I am one of the few Virginians who refuses to revere Mr. Monticello, but that’s for another day), but there is no reason supporters of limited government should be afraid of cities or dense suburbs. Indeed, a conservative agenda is not that difficult to sketch out. It can begin with the following:
Education reform: The less rural of county becomes, the less sense it makes to relegate children into a school via geography. It should be no surprise that the vanguard of school reform ideas (more competition through public-school choice or tuition tax credits, charter schools, etc.), have come from urban areas and/or elected officials from them. This is one issue on which Republicans find it easy to unite, while Democrats split like ripe melons.
Farm policy: Where to begin? The Rube-Goldberg-like combination of price supports and supply regulations regarding farm policy was so bad it was joined with the food stamps bill roughly thirty years ago to keep urban liberals from screaming bloody murder. Sadly, the GOP has work to do before they can be trusted to keep the government out of consumers’ grocery bills, but as more districts and counties transform from net beneficiaries to net victims of this nonsense, Republicans who are true to reducing government will see this as low-hanging fruit (yeah, it’s a pun – deal with it).
Infrastructure reform: I know what you’re thinking – infrastructure what? For the most part, this is one of the few policies areas where all agree that some form of government involvement can be sound. But how much? And in what way? Virginia in particular has a bizarre set-up: localities decide most land-use matters, but the state covers the road – and rail, where applicable – responsibilities that comes with it. Thus, either high-density areas feel shortchanged, or low-density areas feel like their the victims of taxation without representation (and, Virginians being humans, we get some of both here). It shouldn’t surprise anyone that John Cook, a Fairfax County Supervisor who has called for giving Fairfax control of its roads again, is one of only two Republicans with constituents inside the Beltway. The other, John Vihstadt, ran against a local transportation boondoggle…which dovetails to the last issue (and possibly most powerful in these areas)…
Efficiency and competence in government: When governments do too much, the things they should do suffer. Nowhere is this more obvious than in cities or highly-populated suburbs…and it’s why locally Republicans and conservatives can do far better than is recognized. Indeed, right after Bill Clinton joined the long line of supposed GOP-killers, a Republican was elected Mayor of New York on a platform of better police service and more efficient government. The Republicans controlled the office for twenty years, in part by shifting to education reform (see above).
In all cases, Republicans and conservatives can show that a government closer to the people, more flexible, more dynamic, less rigid, and smaller can be better for city and suburb dwellers. Unfortunately, the party does not have a lot of experience at the national level with these voters, but that could change…and as soon as 2016.
Governor Chris Christie has won twice in the most densely-populated state in the country (New Jersey). Scott Walker may be well-known by his actions as Governor of Wisconsin, but he cut his teeth as Milwaukee County Executive. Susanna Martinez was District Attorney in Las Cruces for 14 years before being elected Governor of New Mexico. Marco Rubio was a Miami state legislator for nine years.
Neither potential Texas candidate (Ted Cruz or Rick Perry) had direct urban local experience, but when you serve a state with Houston (fourth largest city by population in the country), Dallas, and Austin, you can learn a thing or two. Rand Paul has neither Texas’ big cities nor any local experience, but his outreach efforts could make him the exception that proves the rule.
I should note that all three Senators mentioned voted against the latest farm bill fiasco.
This isn’t to say appealing to urban and high-density suburban voters will be easy for Republicans and conservatives – either now or in 2016. It is to say that it can be done, and frankly, it should be done.
