With the House of Delegates set to hold a vote on expanding Medicaid, there’s plenty of reason to expect that tempers will begin to rise.
And guess what? The shouting has already begun. On his Facebook page, Del. Todd Gilbert passes along the following:
Governor McAuliffe apparently spent the morning threatening our members and the fate of their legislation if they don’t vote to expand the broken and expensive Medicaid system. Now his spokesman is calling our members liars after they spoke out about these threats. Washington-style politics have finally shown up as expected.
Washington-style politics has been in Richmond for a while, and any member with a long enough memory will recall other Governors strong-arming or otherwise blowing their tops over legislation. It’s an occasional feature of Richmond’s political scene.
One thing is striking about all this: McAuliffe has the numbers on his side. The Senate (with an assist from three Republicans) wants expansion of some sort. The Governor does, too. The House can and will make a fight out of this, but eventually someone will blink. The early line is that both sides will try to use the budget as a lever to get the other guys to move. House Republicans have already made the case that their version of the budget has all sorts of prizes in store for teachers, colleges, public safety officials and many others. Senate Republicans will argue the same. How, they ask, can Terry McAuliffe and Democrats hold all this hostage to Medicaid expansion?
It’s a fairly good argument, but it is not entirely safe. Some of those very interest groups could decide they want their budget goodies and Medicaid too. We will have to wait and see how that narrative unfolds.
What else could happen? Terry McAuliffe could decide to expand Medicaid all by himself…and then dare opponents to sue him in court.
Far fetched? It’s something Bob McDonnell put on the table last year:
McDonnell’s March 5, 2013, letter declared: “As governor … the decision currently rests with me on whether or not to expand (Medicaid).”
McDonnell added that he had no intention of unilaterally enlarging the indigent-care rolls, saying he would wait for the Medicaid Innovation and Reform Commission to complete its analysis, due at the end of this year.
McAuliffe wouldn’t necessarily have to wait that long. He could say the MIRC has done enough and, by not voting on the issue in a timely fashion, has abdicated its responsibility…so he will expand Medicaid himself.
There are legal perils in going this route — not the least of which is what side Attorney General Mark Herring would take in such a case and a possible PR battle for the ages.
The fun is just getting started.
