BREAKING: Keith Fimian To Run For Congress In VA-10Politics

fimian_bull_run

Conservative stalwart and businessman Keith Fimian is gearing up for run for VA-10 to replace long-term Rep. Frank Wolf in Virginia’s 10th District.

Other candidates rumored to be considering runs are Delegate Barbara Comstock, State Senator Jill Vogel, and perennial party-crasher Tareq Salahi.

Should Fimian drop into VA-10, it will put a battle-tested conservative candidate known to be able to raise money in a district much more conservative than the race to sack Rep. Connolly in VA-11.  In any nomination contest, Fimian would be a formidable candidate, indeed…

UPDATE:  Yes yes yes… State Senator Dick Black is being asked to consider a run as well.  Delegate Bob Marshall is also being pressured to run.  Don’t expect to see Pete Snyder or Ken Cuccinelli run for VA-10, though…

UPDATE x 2:  Another wild card, should he throw in?  Former Rep. Artur Davis has always been rumored to have interests, but to date has not exhibited a serious effort to jump in.  It’s early yet… but I would expect a flurry of announcements in January regardless.

UPDATE x3:  Former Rep. Artur Davis is seriously considering a run, according to CQ Roll Call:

Former Rep. Artur Davis, D-Ala., who switched to the GOP, told CQ Roll Call in February that he would be interested in running should Wolf retire. In response to a Tuesday inquiry from CQ Roll Call, Davis did not rule himself out of the race.

“I will monitor the field that develops in the next several weeks in the hope that a responsible center-right candidate will emerge, one who gives Republicans a chance to keep this district and who will represent the best of the Virginia Republican Party,” Davis said in a statement.

State Senator Jill Vogel has told the WaPo’s Ben Pershing that she will not seek the nomination.

 

BREAKING…

  • MD Russ

    The last time I checked, neither Keith nor Tareq live in the 10th CD.

    • Virginia Operative

      That doesnt mean anything in NoVa

    • http://www.shaunkenney.com Shaun Kenney

      Keith Fimian could throw a rock from his front porch and have it land in the 10th, from what I understand. Regardless of the inevitable pulling of hair in the back of the car, Fimian does change the layout of VA-10 in a big, big way.

      • MD Russ

        Shaun,

        Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades. Keith lives in Oakton were I lived before moving to western Loudoun County. If he moves into the 10th CD just to run for our Congressional seat, he will lose. The only thing that Keith changes is the 10th CD will be the amount of money needed to run in the primary.

        • http://www.shaunkenney.com Shaun Kenney

          That’s only going to matter to the folks who want to make hay out of it, IMO. As noted below, not sure it’s really going to matter in a community as transient and cosmopolitan as Northern Virginia.

        • midwestconservative

          As someone stated below, Morgan Griffith beat long time incumbent Rich Boucher while living outside of the 9th District.
          And I’m pretty sure Southwest Virginia views carpetbagging more negatively then NOVA.

          • MD Russ

            Thanks. I did not know that.

      • Tommy Valentine

        Did redistricting put him in the 10th? It hadn’t taken effect yet when he ran in 2010.

        • http://www.shaunkenney.com Shaun Kenney

          I don’t think so… could be wrong, but I don’t believe that is the case.

          • Tommy Valentine

            Regardless, he’s got as much credibility as anyone. By the way, who’s your source on this article? Just wondering.

          • http://www.shaunkenney.com Shaun Kenney

            You know better than that… ;)

        • MD Russ

          No. Oakton is still in the 11th. I just moved from there last June and voted last November in the 11th.

    • PresterJohn5

      There is no legal requirement for a candidate to live In a congressional district they want to represent. In the state, yes; in the district, no.

      • MD Russ

        Granted, that is the Constitutional requirement. But as a matter of practicality, how many members of the House represent a district that they don’t live in?

        • Samuel_G

          Morgan Griffith beat Rick Boucher while not living in the 9th CD.

        • FormerFloridian

          Allen West lived in Debbie Wasserman-Schultz’s district when he won.

          • MD Russ

            Allen West is a poor example. He ran for Congress in 2008 and got waxed by 10 points. In 2010 he ran again and rode the Republican landslide that swept the Democrats out of the majority after they passed ObamaCare. Two years later, after the voters of Florida-22 came to realize what a gasbag fraud he is, he when one-and-gone.

            I will give him credit for having a better hair style than Debbie What’s-her-name Schultz.

          • Tommy Valentine

            What does your personal analysis have to do with the discussion? FormerFloridian was simply pointing to an example of someone who won who’s not from the district. (And to act like FL-22 tossed him out resoundingly is absurd; the race went into a recount and he lost by 0.6%. But I digress.)

          • MD Russ

            Have you ever heard of the term “incumbency?” Any time a serving Congressman loses reelection it is a resounding rejection of him by the voters.

          • Tommy Valentine

            Yes, because a 0.6% margin after being targeted in redistricting is “resounding”. Give me a break.

          • midwestconservative

            Allen West is actually a good example if you consider that the district he won is demographically similar to NOVA, and like NOVA is less concerned about carpetbagging then say some rural district in South Carolina.

          • MD Russ

            You obviously don’t know much about south Florida demographics. Wasserman-Schultz’s district, primarily Miami-Dade, is a Hispanic enclave of new arrivals. Florida-22 to the north is primarily Fort Lauderdale, Broward, and Palm Beach, a gerrymandered district that is a refuge for mostly white Republicans who fled Miami-Dade. Florida-22 has nothing in common with NoVa, unless you consider Prince William County typical of NoVa.

          • midwestconservative

            My point was that South Florida, like NOVA is decidedly NOT southern in culture in a Southern State.
            Southerners dislike carpetbaggers more then just about any other American subculture. They originated the term.
            So I doubt the charge of being a “carpetbagger” will matter much in the 10th if the person running happens to live a few miles over in the 11th.

          • MD Russ

            And my point was that the 10th CD is not representative of the Demokratic Peoples’ Republiks of Arlington, Alexandria, and Fairfax. The precincts in the 10th, esp. those that are west of US 15, are God & Guns territories and they won’t vote for an interloper from Oakton, no matter how conservative he is.

        • DJRippert

          In many places your point would be quite important. However, as a long time resident of the 10th – it won’t matter here. If Fimian were from Charlottesville somebody might be able to make hay of running in the 10th. But Oakton? Fimian is a Navy brat who moved to Virginia at age 9 when his Dad was stationed in Virginia Beach. A William & Mary graduate, Fimian founded a company in Chantilly, VA in the 1980s.

          Not only is he a “real Virginian” he’s a “real” Northern Virginian – which is good enough for this resident of the 10th.

          Unfortunately, John Foust (Fairfax County BoS) has announced that he’ll seek the Democratic nomination. I say unfortunately because Foust is well respected and pretty much a centrist. He may be a tough competitor.

          • midwestconservative

            He better come out in support of Repeal then. Any Democrat in a mildly GOP leaning district will be going down if they stand too close to that shipwreck.
            Foust would stand a better chance if this were 2012. It isn’t.

          • DJRippert

            I believe most residents of the 10th want to see Obamacare gutted. However, having no alternative other than gutting Obamacare may not play too well either. I hope both candidates have sensible positions on health care reform in America.

  • Loudoun GOPer

    Dick Black is not just considering a run. He is in the race. That’s what forming an exploratory committee is all about. Marshall is not running. He is backing Black (see Virginia Virtucon)

    • JReynolds79

      He’s in the race insofar as he considers himself a viable candidate. As for those of us trying to hold this seat, we’re busy working on other fronts.

      • Loudoun GOPer

        I happen to believe that a sitting State Senator who represents a large portion of the district with 10 years of experience in the General Assembly and averages 57% of the vote in elections as a pretty viable candidate. So do most of his constituents.

        • JReynolds79

          So do the people who attended the mass meeting which led to Whitbeck’s nomination. That doesn’t make any of them correct.

  • midwestconservative

    I’m mildly surprised Eugene Del Gaudio isn’t considering a run. He’s probably the one guy who could lose this seat for the GOP 6 months out before any campaigning or corresponding gaffes.

  • DJRippert

    So … how will the Republicans choose their candidate for the 10th?

    • midwestconservative

      Primary I guess. Convention is out of vogue now.

    • http://www.brianschoeneman.org/ Brian W. Schoeneman

      If it’s not a convention, I will be flabbergasted.

  • midwestconservative

    Are there any Democrats being considered?

  • midwestconservative

    In other news, Joe T. May will be running as and Independent for Herring’s old seat, and I heard Whitbeck will be the GOP nominee.
    What chance does May have? Is he moderate enough to have cross party appeal?

    • Scout

      Joe May is a strong, popular mainstream Republican who has been rejected by what passes for Republicans these days in that locality. He’s an engineer, an entrepreneur, and served his district well in the General Assembly. He is essentially a smart governance Republican, not particularly “moderate” in any sense other than the hyped up, distorted sense that infects the blog world. He should be a strong candidate. In many ways, he resembles Frank Wolf. The Rs decided not to put up a serious challenger, although, without May, the choice was not particularly impressive.

      • midwestconservative

        So essentially in a three way race, May only serves to divide the GOP vote? Or does he stand any chance of getting Dems and Indies?

        • Not Harry F. Byrd

          That district is far too marginal. Romney got 39% of the vote. May guarantees we lose. Not that Whitbeck is all that strong of a nominee anyway. May clearly wants payback and he’s going to get it.

          • midwestconservative

            Maybe Whitbeck could just drop out?

      • Nick Bukowski

        May is a power hungry big govt sore-loser. He lost in the primary bc he voted for the 6 billion dollar tax increase. He ran for the republican nomination for one day until he realized that he couldn’t win at the mass meeting, because the Republican Mass Meeting does not allow known democrats to participate. And now he’s running as an independent. He does not give a damn about the Republican Party or the principles it stands for. He cares about himself and that is it. And now he enters this race, which will help the Democrat candidate more than the Republican. Why does he do this? Because he’s a power hungry politician. He’s an embarrassment.

        • JReynolds79

          Do you do any research before you rant? Why would a man who has been immensely successful in the private sector (fun fact-he invented the technology that allows for the digital yellow line we see on television while watching football) decide to run for a part-time state office that pays next-to-nothing (somewhere between 17-18k) when you take into account all of the work it requires? Furthermore, it would be quite peculiar for Loudoun County to give someone who fits your description Citizen of the Year in 2012.

          As for your tax increase talking point, have you actually read the bill and studied the budget? We would have run out of revenue for new roads by 2017 had we not done anything. Not only that, the existing revenue sources didn’t track inflation, and were far from sustainable long-term.

          And how does he not “give a damn” about Republican principles? He served Virginians for 20 years as a Republican. Or do you mean he doesn’t “give a damn” about your conception of Republican principles? Because if that’s our standard, I don’t know that many people do.

          • Nick Bukowski

            The Republican Party stands for limited government, lowering taxes and spending. May voted for more spending and more taxes. There are more sensible solutions to funding transportation than that behemoth of a bill. He served as a Republican and Republican voters decided he wasn’t serving them and they booted him out in a primary. And now he’s running as an independent. If he really was a Republican, he would not be running as an Independent. Sure he was elected 20 years ago as a Republican and he served in office for 11 terms with an R after his name, but he didn’t really act like a Republican and him deciding to discard the Republican mantle as soon as it is no longer politically useful shows his true colors. So yes…I stand by my statement that Joe May does not give a damn about the Republican Party nor its principles.

          • JReynolds79

            I think you need to re-visit the state budget, as well as the Constitution, before you start making broad generalizations about the efficiency of our state’s government.

            As for your monopolistic claim on “Republican”-ism, according to your standards Reagan wasn’t a Republican either. You know, since he raised taxes explicitly for…transportation. He also did a number of other things that wouldn’t adhere to your purist standard. But we’ll start here. I’m anxious to see how you rationalize away the history you don’t agree with.

          • Nick Bukowski

            Reagan’s biggest regret was the increase in taxes and spending during his time in office. He spent too much and taxed too much. In comparison to other presidents he’s pretty good, but surely not perfect. http://www.creators.com/opinion/terence-jeffrey/reagan-s-farewell-regret-deficit-he-d-put-nation-on-track-to-eliminate-11-02-09.html

          • JReynolds79

            Again, you need to analyze rather than regurgitate talking points. Your article is in reference to the deficit (and by extension, deficit spending) not a singular tax, and not even the notion of increasing revenues via taxation in order to avoid deficit spending.

            It was a well timed non-sequitor though. And just for clarification purposes, the state is constitutionally required to pass a balanced budget every year. So before you get up-in-arms about how we’re going to turn into DC, make sure your analogies can hold water.

          • DJRippert

            “Not only that, the existing revenue sources didn’t track inflation, and were far from sustainable long-term.”.

            Exactly right! Virginia’s gas tax was last raised in 1986. It is calculated in cents per gallon. In other words, it does not index to inflation in any way. The only state in America that has gone longer without increasing its gas tax is Alaska. Obviously, Alaska is unique.

            Transportation funding in Virginia was an absolute, unadulterated, pure and simple disaster. Every year inflation was a reality and every year the funding for transportation was effectively cut by not keeping the gas tax up with inflation.

            Note to Tea Party: Inflation is real.

            How would you like to be earning the same salary (in raw dollars) that you earned in 1986? Oh, you wouldn’t? Then why do you think the same number of cents per gallon in 1986 will buy adequate roads in 2012?

    • jonathonmoseley

      Joe May is not merely opposed but actively despised by many in Loudoun County. He ha generated passionate opposition. Furthermore, Joe May will draw votes away from the Democrat. I sent an email to John Whitbeck CONGRATULATING him on being the next State Senator BECAUSE Joe May is running as an independent and will guarantee John Whitbeck”s election. This is the same thing that happened to Ken Cuccinelli with regard to the Faux Libertarian who ran this year.

      • midwestconservative

        Because Sarvis guaranteed Cooch’s Victory?

        • jonathonmoseley

          Given that my old law school classmate Ken Cuccinelli made a couple dozen other mistakes — in contrast to his 2002 and 2009 campaigns, for example, when Ken did it right — Sarvis was one of the last remaining factors that sunk Ken’s campaign. But any one of dozens of other factors could have produced a Cuccinelli win in spite of Sarvis. But Sarvis was one of those many significant factors that cost Ken the election.

        • jonathonmoseley

          The main issue is that Joe May will attract Democrat votes more than Republican votes. That is probably different from what ended up happening with Ken Cuccinelli. Joe May running as an independent will hurt the Democrat more than he hurts John Whitbeck.

  • Not Harry F. Byrd

    WRT his two previous losses, Fimian can be forgiven for the 2008 one. I think he outperformed the district as then drawn vs McCain but I could be wrong on that. His 2010 loss is harder to stomach. I’ve always thought Herrity would have won that seat but his primary campaign was less than impressive so who knows (would have been fun to see the redistricting lines with 9 GOPers and 2 Democrats. The 10th and 11th couldn’t both be made safe so either Frank Wolf lets his seat get more Democratic based on his own performance or someone gets voted off the island).

    • Tommy Valentine

      The DCCC poured a million dollars into the 2010 race in the final ten days. Connolly won by only 900 votes (0.4%).

      • Not Harry F. Byrd

        Both of you have fair points. A direct comparison between the 11th and 10th isn’t really fair. FWIW I also remember on election night thinking the Prince William numbers were worse than the Fairfax ones vis a vis the 2010 race. (Relative to expectations) Didn’t Connolly barely win his own precinct? Or am I imagining that…

        • Tommy Valentine

          Fimian won PWC 52-46; Connolly won Fairfax 51-48. He won his own precinct 58-41.

          • Not Harry F. Byrd

            I seem to recall thinking the PWC numbers were low though. I mean Fairfax had some rough precincts in Mason, right? So you’d expect the Prince William numbers to be a bit higher than that of Fairfax (which they were, but not as high as I’d have thought). Is that not a fair assessment?

            Connolly did better than I thought in his precinct, then. Sigh. I like my (incorrect) recollection better!

          • Tommy Valentine

            I’m not very familiar with the dynamics of Prince William, but looking at the numbers, Connolly won PWC 53-44 in 2008, so Fimian went from -6 to +9.

    • midwestconservative

      The 10th is more Republican now then it was in 2010, and it’s also far more Republican then the 11th. Fimian could carry this district. Provided he doesn’t pull any gaffes.

    • jonathonmoseley

      Keith Fimian was defeated by the libertarian third party candidate running as a spoiler. Specifically, Keith Fimian’s margin of loss was much, much smaller than the votes the Libertarian took. SURE, HE HAS EVERY RIGHT TO RUN (the Libertarian.) Just saying from a purely ANALYTICAL perspective — not anything more — that Keith Fimian was an entirely viable candidate to win in a worse district.

  • Pingback: Candidates flood in to replace GOP tough guy

  • jonathonmoseley

    The WAR BEGINS! In Northern Virginia GOP insiders slander candidate as civil war starts for real: Dick Black slandered in race for retiring Frank Wolf’s Congressional seat
    http://curesocialism.blogspot.com/2013/12/war-begins-slandering-conservatives-has.html

  • DJRippert

    The race in the 10th will be a battle to win the middle. John Foust, a candidate announced on the Democratic side, is a centrist. Independent voters (and some conservatives) believe Foust has done a good job on the BoS. He was one of the few to stand up to Boss Connolley when Connolley was still the Chairman of the BoS.

    Don’t think of the 10th as a Tea Party stronghold. It is not. Bill Bolling would have run away with the 10th.

    Fimian seems the most moderate of the candidates that have been mentioned to date by the Republicans.

    • midwestconservative

      Cuccinelli won the 10th.

      • DJRippert

        Yes, he did. 48% to 47%. Against Terry McAuliffe. Romney edged out Obama in the 10th by one percentage point. In 2008, Obama beat McCain by 2.8%. Before Wolf went on his long run in 1980 the district was represented by Democrat Joe Fisher.

        Even Wolf’s winning percentages have been falling since 2000 – 84.2%, 71.4%, 63.8%, 57.3%, 58.8%, 62.9%, 58.4%. Wolf would have won this November. However, even the iconic Rep. Wolf was losing some ground.

        It’s a swing seat.

        If the Republicans don’t recognize that they will lose the seat.

  • Daniel Cortez

    The independent vote will be with Barbara Comstock. The more attractive candidate in terms of electability is Barbara Comstock. The woman’s vote will be with Barbara Comstock…the veteran’s vote will be with Barbara Comstock. If Republican’s want to win that seat…nominate Barbara Comstock…or Republicans will again loose a seat.

    • midwestconservative

      Nominate Comstock or Daniel Cortez will write her in!!

    • jonathonmoseley

      Barbara Comstock would make an excellent candidate. Almost ALL of the rumored candidates would make excellent candidates. This race for the 10th Congressional District is like asking a mother which of her children she loves the most. Keith Fimian has run in that district — the whole district — before and that is important. Barbara Comstock is *NO* moderate by any means. But she did vote for the horrible tax increase deal, and a lot of people won’t forgive her for that.

      • Daniel Cortez

        Jon my friend maybe two years ago I would have agreed with you. But after the humiliation received by Republicans and the tea party in the last election and Keith’s last defeat, the party needs the independent vote to insure victory. Barbara has the courage of her convictions and what she has proven to be is a “winner”. I want to put my money on a candidate that can win and has the presentation of being genuine with outreach. Women, minorities, veterans and independents will flock to her. She is indeed genuine and on top of that a nice person. No Prima Doña attitude just sincere representation. Republicans must change to candidates who CAN win or stay with the same receipt for defeat.

        • jonathonmoseley

          Barbara Comstock would be a great candidate, as I said. However Keith Fimian lost by only about 900 votes as I remember, while the Libertarian candidate took many thousands of votes. So I don’t think that is a bad thing. Keith was running in a worse district then. So I don’t think we should beat upon people who come very close to winning.

          • Daniel Cortez

            Jon, I am not beating him up I am calling the political reality like it is. He’s had his shot and times have changed…we have to change too if you want win the votes you need.

      • Daniel Cortez

        And Joh for the record Barbara Comstock did NOT vote for the transportation bill if you are calling that the tax increase…and Keith ran in the 11th District for Congress and as you know was defeated.

      • Daniel Cortez

        Jon here the public record showing that she voted against the transportation tax for those calling it a tax increase….

        http://www.connectionnewspapers.com/news/2013/mar/21/letter-transportation-bill-possibly-unconstitution/

        • jonathonmoseley

          Well people are speaking against Barbara Comstock on the grounds that she voted for the big $6 billlion tax (they are not specific). I was thinking of sending Barbara a note that she may need to respond to that. So ifit isn’t true, it should be clarified.

          • Daniel Cortez

            This is typical spin of those trying to muddy the water….it is an old game. Her record is an honorable one There is no specificity because it is not true….again an old game.

  • Pingback: Dick Black needs to stay in the Senate | Bearing Drift