As is usual for me, my plans to comment on this op-ed post by Alexis Rose Bank ran into trouble…because it would be too long to fit into a comment. Thus was the post you are now reading written.
ARB had some interesting observations, but this one struck me as, well, off:
Please pause a moment here and let that fact sink in: in any race where the electorate is not solidly Republican, any Democrat can win by raising enough money and attacking his opponent on abortion and running enough TV ads. For you football fans out there, this is the political equivalent of not being able to stop the run. If your opponent can run on you at will, he can and will do so because it guarantees a win. Likewise, the Democrats know they can run on abortion, shovel sufficient money in, and win any “purple” or Democrat-leaning race, and nothing else matters.
I really want to stress here that nothing else matters. Nothing but this or that – no. Those other things might matter if we learn to stop the run, but until we can do that, having the best pass defense in the league isn’t going to be worth a yard.
The problem here is that ARB conflates two issues – McAuliffe’s money advantage and the candidates differences on the issue of pre-born life. Yet her solution only focuses on one of them:
Takeaway: the Republican Party needs a new strategy on abortion, because its current strategy is easily exploited by the opposition, and is directly resulting in the election of Democrat after Democrat, all of whom have all the moderation of Mengele when it comes to the subject. On what that strategy should be I could write at
least one more article, probably many more. What you need to understand for the purposes of this one is that the current strategy is fatal to Republican candidates, which leaves the only type of Republican who is able to win a contested seat those that hold a pro-abortion view. Abortion opponents have in no unclear terms been the single most significant cause of Republican losses in recent years, as illustrated by the wholly uncompelling Governor-elect (ugh!) McAuliffe having successfully pulled off just that strategy.It’s time to come up with an anti-abortion strategy that doesn’t require police and jails and creepy forms of rape (which is what compulsory “transvaginal” anything is) and other forms of state violence in order to see it through; the electorate has stated in no uncertain terms that it will not accept that.
With all due respect, that depends on how one defines “the electorate.” Outside of Virginia, the above statement wasn’t just refuted, but refuted with bone-crushing authority. To wit…
New Jersey: The state’s first avowed pro-life governor – ever – ran for re-election after a three-year battle with Democrats in the State Legislature over the shape and conduct of the State Supreme Court (three seats, out of seven, remain vacant at this hour) and repeated vetoes of Planned Parenthood funding. When challenged by his opponent, Christie refused to yield and stood his ground. He won by over 20 points in a state where Republicans are actually third, behind Democrats and Independents.
Westchester County, New York: County Executive Rob Astorino made no secret of his pro-life views as a radio host, and was whacked for it while running for re-election in the ultimate and purified example of a limousine-liberal suburb. He took 56% of the vote (Romney took 37% last year).
So why did these pro-lifers win their races while Ken lost his? I see three reasons.
Incumbency: It certainly helped that Christie and Astorino had records governing, but Virginians are used to one-term Governors. The problem here was that the incumbent (Bob McDonnell) was badly damaged by the Star Scientific brouhaha. By the time he recovered (partially) in the fall, it was too late.
Taxes: Astorino had a record of keeping property taxes low and government efficient. Christie chose public pension reform over tax increases. Cuccinelli? Depending on how one interprets his I-kept-the-McDonnell-tax-increase-constitutional line, he endorsed either two or three tax increases during his campaign, which is two or three more than Christie enacted during his entire term. I have said this repeatedly (although, perhaps, not as much in this forum), Republicans win over small-l libertarians on economic issues, which is especially critical when the candidate is a known social conservative. Three of the last four GOP nominees for Governor flubbed the tax issue, and they all lost. Only McDonnell (ironically enough given what we now know) campaigned on opposition to tax increases, and he won.
Responding to the other guy’s nonsense: To borrow ARB’s metaphor, it’s hard to stop the run with a dime package. What made T-Mac’s ads effective was not the message per se, but Cuccinelli’s refusal to answer the charges within them for months. Moreover, T-Mac talked about more than just abortion; he hit Cuccinelli on divorce and gay rights, too. Voters may not pay close attention to elections until October, but they will be influenced by what they see and hear in the months before it. With the exception of one good week on education reform, all they heard from Cuccinelli were problems about T-Mac. T-Mac’s continued barrage itself went unanswered – and in politics, what goes unanswered is perceived as true.
I think this also reflects something broader within the country that the right needs to address: some social issues are more divisive than others. The tide is clearly shifting on same-sex marriage, for instance. But abortion? If the nationwide needle has moved at all over the last twenty years, it’s moved toward the side of life, not away from it.
Going back to New Jersey, the first avowed pro-life candidate for Governor in the state’s history (Jim Courter, 1989), pulled a flip-flop that still bears his name to this day, and won less the 40% of the vote. Twenty years later, the second avowed pro-life candidate for Governor in the state’s history took 48% and won a three way race. Last week, he took 60% of the vote. By staying firm on taxes, and explaining himself on this and other issues, Christie engineered a ten-point-plus solution.
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