Quinnipiac: McAuliffe +6, PPP: McAuliffe +7Politics

What should be the final polls of the 2013 election are now out and both show a race that still favors the Democrats. PPP Polls final batch of numbers for the statewide races and finds Terry McAuliffe in front of Ken Cuccinelli by seven points, while Quinnipiac puts the race a tad closer, with McAuliffe up by six. PPP shows Libertarian Robert Sarvis flirting with Russ Potts territory, clocking in with just four percent support. Quinnipiac has Sarvis at eight percent.

So in PPP’s view, what is driving its figures? Anger:

Both Candidates are deeply unpopular with Cuccinelli post a 39/52 favorability rating, and McAuliffe’s coming in at 36/52. But among voters who dislike both candidates – and they account for 15 % of the electorate – McAuliffe leads Cuccinelli 61/16. Those voters who don’t like either major party standard bearer are responsibly for McAuliffe’s entire lead in this poll.

And that, folks, is why McAuliffe ought to be pacing the floors in a sleepless sweat. That kind of negativity is very hard to sustain. It is fluid, too, and those angry voters could just as easily decide to abandon McAuliffe on a whim. PPP has McAuliffe’s negatives just as high as Cuccinelli’s — that’s new, too. Add that to the mix and you understand why The Macker brought in every marquee Democrat he could this past week and weekend. He needs them a lot more than they need him.

The partisan split for this poll is 37D/34R/29I with a 3.3 percent margin of error.

Quinnipiac doesn’t find the same level of general disgust. But it does offer some hard perspective:

“To make a comeback in the final hours Cuccinelli will need to take virtually all the undecided; peel off a few percent from Sarvis and hope that his turnout operation is superior to that of McAuliffe. Obviously that is a longshot formula for victory. The good news for Cuccinelli is that his supporters seem more enthusiastic about their guy than are the McAuliffe backers, but there just doesn’t seem to be enough of them to get Cuccinelli over the top.”

Longshots are better than no shots (just ask Creigh Deeds about the latter). But back to that enthusiasm idea. Quinnipiac’s take goes like this:

Cuccinelli wins the enthusiasm race among Virginia likely voters: 54 percent of his backers strongly favor him, compared to 39 percent of McAuliffe supporters and 14 percent of Sarvis backers. Among Sarvis supporters, 74 percent say they back the Libertarian because they dislike the other candidates.

This reflects the data from last week’s Washington Post poll that found nearly two-thirds of McAuliffe’s supporters weren’t voting for him. They were voting against Ken Cuccinelli. To call this an unsteady base is being generous. It’s volatile.

Quinnipiac’s demographics have changed again from last week. This poll has a 27R/33D/33I split, with a 2.5 percent margin of error.

  • Ryan Gleason

    D+3, and D+7 turnout model. But what if we have a R+3 turnout which is closer to the norm…. I think this race will be much closer then these pre-election polls suggest.

    • midwestconservative

      Yep. It certainly doesn’t help Terry that his base absolutely loathes him.

  • Old-Timer

    There’s some fine self-delusion happenin’ on the board.

  • Wally Erb

    Abandon ship?

    I just received an email from my 2nd district Congressman on the importance in voting;

    Dear Friend,

    A key component to success is showing up.

    Which is why it is vital you show up with me on Election Day to support Mark Obenshain for Attorney General.

    Blah … Blah … Blah

    Please join me in voting for Mark Obenshain for Attorney General on November 5th.

    In Freedom,

    • Wally Erb

      Hey, T-party? Does this mean the man don’t need you anymore?

      • JuliaSherrill

        No we know who to vote for. The one right for VA and it ain’t ex-Dem strategist. Death panel insurance $ making man.

    • http://bearingdrift.com/ J.R. Hoeft

      Got the same email, Wally…I know Rigell said very early that he would not campaign for Jackson, but the absence of Cuccinelli seems curious.

      • JuliaSherrill

        No one needs to tell us who to vote for. We know! And he’ll do it tomorrow!

    • Wally Erb

      OK, Late this afternoon, a similar email, as above, from the Congressman for Cuccinelli was forwarded. I don’t expect one for Jackson though, as J.R. has stated.

    • JuliaSherrill

      I’d say they’re not worried!

  • isophoroneblog

    “27R/332D/33I split?” That’s one heck of a demographic!

    • NormLeahy

      The perils of typing without a full dose of caffeine.

  • mezurak

    The poll at work revealed 7 out of 10 voting for Sarvis. They don’t like the other two candidates. 3 for Sarvis are African-American ladies that think Obama sucks.

    • midwestconservative

      Who are you voting for?

  • JuliaSherrill

    Go Ken Cuccenelli! I am a woman and I approve this message!

    • JuliaSherrill

      VA needs you to continue the Obamacare fight and Edu reform, etc! Ken will Stop Obamacare in VA!
      Virginians vote at the polls tomorrow like your life and your family and friends and neighbors lives depend on it cause it does!