Quinnipiac: McAuliffe +4 (UPDATED with Roanoke College results)Politics

Quinnipiac’s latest poll of the Virginia gubernatorial race shows…we may have a race on our hands after all. The new numbers still show Terry McAuliffe ahead of Ken Cuccinelli, but by only four points — 45-41. Robert Sarvis posts nine percent support. The poll has a 2.9 percent margin of error.

A few items of note — yes, there’s still a yawning gender gap. And yes, Ken Cuccinelli still needs to nail down the GOP base. But this is the area where he’s made substantial improvement week over week:

McAuliffe leads 91 – 2 percent among Democrats, with 4 percent for Sarvis, while Cuccinelli leads 86 – 5 percent among Republicans, with 7 percent for Sarvis. Independent voters go to McAuliffe 46 – 31 percent, with 16 percent for Sarvis.

Women back the Democrat 50 – 37 percent, with 7 percent for Sarvis. Men go to Cuccinelli 45 – 39 percent with 11 percent for Sarvis.

Unlike the Washington Post poll earlier this week, which showed Sarvis supporters really weren’t the key to the race, Quinnipiac says they are:

“With the race this close, the final decision by the roughly one in 10 voters who are supporting Libertarian Robert Sarvis has become even more critical. Nationally, third-party candidates often lose support in the end as voters enter the voting booth and back someone they consider the lesser of two evils. Only six in 10 Sarvis supporters say they definitely will vote for him. Almost nine in 10 McAuliffe and Cuccinelli backers are committed.”

So expect the pounding on Sarvis as a “LINO” to continue.

And then there are the independents:

“Cuccinelli seems to be benefitting from Republicans coming home, but McAuliffe still does a little better among Democrats than Cuccinelli does among GOPers. And, McAuliffe leads among independents, perhaps the key voting group. It is difficult to see Cuccinelli winning if he can’t run at least even or slightly ahead among independents. Here, too, Sarvis’ voters matter greatly since the libertarian is getting 16 percent of independents, but only 9 percent overall.”

All the more reason to pour the boiling oil on Sarvis. It will likely be effective, given that Quinnipiac and other polling firms have shown his support to be so soft. But where do those voters go afterwards? That’s fascinating to watch.

Quinnipiac sarvis trend

McAuliffe still gets more second choice votes. But his margin is eroding. Fast.

The number that still tells me Cuccinelli has a hazy path to victory, though, is his unfavorable rating:

Virginia likely voters give McAuliffe a negative 41 – 46 percent favorability rating, compared to a negative 40 – 52 percent for Cuccinelli. For Sarvis, 75 percent don’t know enough to form an opinion.

McAuliffe is underwater. In any other race at any other time, he would be unelectable…save for Cuccinelli being just a bit worse.

It’s worth noting, for those interested in the partisan splits of polls, that this week’s Quinnipiac poll is the first since Bearing Drift’s own poll in September to show a slightly more Republican turnout. Quinnipiac puts the numbers at 31R/29D/31I and 8 percent “other.” Last week, the split was 25R/33D/35I and 7 percent “other.”

And for those playing the deeper game…recall that the NBC/Marist poll showed Cuccinelli’s voter intensity was solidly higher than McAuliffe’s. Voter intensity matters in low turnout elections. A lot.

Don’t forget this item either: the Washington Post poll showed 64 percent of McAuliffe’s supporters weren’t voting for him. They were voting against Ken Cuccinelli. That was an astounding number, and I said it could be McAuliffe’s eventual undoing.

Now you know why Bill and Hillary Clinton, The President, and Joe Biden, too, are making campaign stops for McAuliffe. He’s not sure — at all — that his (grudging) supporters will show up on election day. He needs all the halo effect he can get.

UPDATE

Roanoke College also has a set of poll numbers out today and those figures show an entirely different race than Quinnipiac:

Democrat Terry McAuliffe has opened a 15-point lead over Republican Ken Cuccinelli (46%-31%), while 14 percent of likely voters in Virginia remain undecided in the 2013 Gubernatorial election, according to The Roanoke College Poll. Libertarian candidate Robert Sarvis claimed 9 percent of respondents.*

The Roanoke College Poll interviewed 838 likely voters in Virginia between October 21 and October 27 and has a margin of error of +3.4 percent.

In the down-ticket races, Democrat Ralph Northam leads Republican E. W. Jackson for lieutenant governor (Northam-48%, Jackson-32%, Undecided-20%), and, for the first time, Democrat Mark Herring has opened a significant lead over Republican Mark Obenshain for attorney general (Herring-46%, Obenshain-35%, Undecided-19%).

Um. yeah. How on earth do we get two polls showing such wildly different snapshots?

The partisan split.

Roanoke College split

So today will be filled with dueling press releases, with each side touting, or ignoring, the results of their preferred poll.

  • Tommy Valentine

    See what a difference the sample makes?

    • NormLeahy
      • Ryan Gleason

        Yes, and when you average a bunch of polls that all have D+6 to D+9 samples then you get an RCP average in favor of McAuliffe. Shocker!

        We need to be working on getting out the vote and firing our side up. Haven’t seen BD helping towards that goal in the last few weeks. You all planning on trying to actually help?

        • catholicgal

          Amen to that! My family and I are working hard on getting out the vote in my county. Bearing Drift has done nothing but tear down Cuccinelli. We have been traveling to Richmond to get signs, stickers, everything we can – because some local offices have nothing left. I will be standing outside my church getting people to get out and vote. My kids are on it too!

          These polls may be accurate – but they are like self fulfilling prophecies. I really feel like BD and the RNC just want us to give up and stay home. I will not listen to polls. I am going to keep on encouraging people to get out and VOTE.

          If Cooch loses, well it won’t be because I gave into Bloomberg, Clinton, Planned Parenthood with their unlimited funds, or an RNC that never showed up in Virginia. It will be because of “conservatives” like those on this site that constantly try to make us believe that everything is hopeless. I will not teach my kids to give up, ever. Wake up people. Stop analyzing and get out there – pray hard and work hard.

      • Britt Howard

        I wonder how much difference Bearing drift headlines picked up by search engines make.

  • Doug Brown

    Internal McAuliffe campaign memo:

    “Quick sell more visas to Chinese investors so we can swamp the air waves with more sick and slanderous stories about Cooch. Will USCIS Director Alejandro Mayorkas, Obama’s nominee for number 2 at DHS who is still under investigation for his “work” with Terry be accompanying the POTUS’ appearance with Terry? Perhaps Alejandro can bring some blank visas with him?”

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  • Socialism: Organized Evil

    McAuliffe is one slimy huckster.

    • butch1227

      cuccinelli is one WOMEN-HATING, GAY-HATING, GOVERNMENT SHUT-DOWN LOVING, IMMIGRATION REFORM HATING, STARVE THE POOR, ANTI-HEALTH CARE, PEE PARTY WACKO…!!! Bye, bye, cooch…!!!! LOL…!!!

      • Socialism: Organized Evil

        Cuccinelli is the only serious candidate in the race.

  • Markos_Anderson

    Rasmussen will release a poll later today showing McAuliffe up by 7%….way, way less than their last poll showing McAuliffe up by 17%.

    No idea on Sarvis’ numbers…will be released in the poll.

    Cuccinelli is leading by 1% among Independents, so it looks like another D+7 sample.

  • Britt Howard

    LINO? Go with protecting the 2nd amendment and Virginia’s economy & revenue with respect to the coal industry from McAwful.
    Also, libertarians should be reminded of Cuccinelli’s role of championing REAL eminent domain reform in the senate. Then you have his stance on Real ID, the EPA overreaches, and his active defending of the US & Virginia from Obamacare.

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  • Pingback: Hampton U: McAuliffe +6, Northam +6, Obenshain +6 | Bearing Drift

  • butch1227

    Why would ANYONE vote for attorney general ULTRASOUND..??!! Oh. Let’s see……
    WAR ON WOMEN, SUPPRESS THE VOTE, ANTI-GAY, ANTI-BLACK, ANTI-LATINO, STARVE THE POOR, SHUT DOWN THE GOVERNMENT, etc., etc. WHY would ANYONE vote a pee party republican in ANY Virginia race..??!! Oh. I know……….I guess you’d have to be a REAL DUMB BASS…!!!! LOL…!!!