Poll Dancing

pole-dancing

Today is the day of selective poll reading.

Whether or not you choose to believe the Quinnipac polls showing Cuccinelli down by 4, the Hampton University poll down by 6, or the Real Clear Politics average which shows Cuccinelli down by an average of 8.3 the news is all the same.  Or perhaps the Rassmussen poll showing Cuccinelli down by 7?

(1)  Cuccinelli is down by much more than 5 points.

(2)  McAuliffe is hovering very near 50% in some cases.

(3)  Sarvis has crossed the 10% threshhold.

While there’s a lot of enthusiasm for the Quinnipac poll among conservatives today, the fact of the matter is that until there’s a definitive trend showing that Ken Cuccinelli is (a) closing the gap (b) significantly (c) in time for Election Day, these are all just blips on the radar screen.  Despite all the presupposed “good news” of today, the RCP average has moved precisely 0.7 points… which if you extrapolate that on a graph, means that Cuccinelli will draw even with McAuliffe sometime in February 2014.

Moreover, you’re not seeing any great issue moving the marker for Cuccinelli at this point.  The NRA gaffe from McAuliffe was left to die in the sun, so that’s out of the question.  The failure to have any cohesive message control in the last week of the campaign (despite very recent efforts to correct this) means that all the hubbub over Obamacare isn’t translating well despite massive public opposition to the ACA.  There have been no great injections of cash other than what we’ve seen going to either AG candidate Mark Obenshain or LP candidate Robert Sarvis…

Historic_large_pres_graphic-01courtesy of VPAP.org — click to embiggen

…so without a dynamic change, we’re down to raw unadulterated turnout — expected to be somewhere north of 30% according to insiders.

Now a more seasoned and savvy politico would say that we’re seeing shades of Romney 2012 here, where folks — namely the grassroots — are reading into the polls what they want to believe, leading to predictable results.  Folks were understandably shocked at the “fake polls to boost enthusiasm” tactic… it hurt Republican morale in a big way in 2012.  That same strategy employed again for 2013 is a loser, folks… in short, don’t fall for it until it’s true.

Anyone desiring to insure themselves against disappointment will read up on the concept of confirmation bias.  In the meantime, barring any earth-shattering mistakes from McAuliffe, the basic dynamics of this race have not budged a great deal… we’re in a base election that will largely rely on the apparatus built by the two (three?) gubernatorial campaigns.

Ignore the poll dancing, folks.  The soil is cultivated, the wheat is grown… he who reaps the most wins.

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