Rasmussen Reports goes where no other poll of the 2013 Virginia gubernatorial race has gone before: it’s given Terry McAuliffe 50 percent of likely voter support:
Democrat Terry McAuliffe has jumped to a 17-point lead over Republican Ken Cuccinelli in the Virginia gubernatorial race following the federal government shutdown that hit Northern Virginia hard and Hillary Clinton’s weekend visit to the state.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Virginia Voters finds McAuliffe with 50% support to Cuccinelli’s 33%. Libertarian candidate Robert Sarvis is a distant third with eight percent (8%) of the vote. Three percent (3%) like some other candidate, while five percent (5%) remain undecided.
The Cuccinelli campaign says it’s all rot:
Cuccinelli’s campaign expressed confidence, dismissing the polls. “In this race, there has been lots of polling and lots of very bad polling. In two weeks, voters will decide,” said spokeswoman Anna Nix.
No poll taken since early July has shown Cuccinelli leading the race. And to make matters worse, Rasmussen continues a trend of showing Cuccinelli polling below 40 percent.
But let’s add this on to the pile, too. PPP has a poll of those who’ve already cast their ballots and it shows McAuliffe ahead in that universe by a whopping 57-39 percent, with Sarvis at 3 percent — barely edging out the high water mark set by Russ Potts in 2005’s gubernatorial contest. The full results of PPP’s analysis can be seen here:
VA-Gov PPP for LCV (Oct. 2013) – Early Voters Only by Daily Kos Elections
And yes, I’m well aware that PPP has taken a great deal of flack for its methodology and yes, this poll was conducted at the behest of the League of Conservation Voters, a McAuliffe supporter.
The numbers I’m interested in belong to libertarian Robert Sarvis. PPP’s numbers indicate his support may be much softer than previously thought. While it’s dangerous to tease trends out of early voting numbers, it’s still instructive to get a look at how actual voters are doing their thing — and it’s not for Sarvis.
Neither does it appear to be for Ken Cuccinelli.
Back to the Rasmussen numbers…
If these figures are confirmed by other polls between now and election day, then the question becomes what the fallout may be in the downticket races. National Republicans have pulled the trigger and are now committing resources to Mark Obenshain:
The Republican State Leadership Committee, which builds farm teams for gubernatorial and federal races by helping elect down-ballot candidates for state office, has stroked four big checks – for a total $1.35 million – to Mark Obenshain just this month.
Unlike his fellow Republicans on the ticket, Obenshain is running even and possible ahead in campaign contributions and public opinion against his Democratic rival, Mark Herring.
“This Obenshain thing is very real in Virginia and as the governor’s race becomes less of a race, the attorney general’s race seems to be the talk,” said Chris Jankowski, president of the RSLC. “Donors are starting to see that Obenshain can get across the line with some more support, and we’re obviously the biggest investor.”
Not a word about Jackson. Obenshain is the last ditch — the firewall against a sweep. And that’s where the GOP money people are going to fight.
