The criticism I most often get (besides that I’m an elitist egotist) is that I’m trapped by inside-the-beltway ‘establishment’ thinking. I think that’s an absolutely valid criticism for someone in my line of work, and that’s why I rely heavily on my friends who don’t live anywhere near here to give me a good dose of non-DC flavored reality.
I called my best friend today and asked him how the government shutdown was affecting him. His response was pretty straightforward: it isn’t. He did visit Valley Forge to see the signs saying the park was closed, but that was the only reason he visited. When I asked him if people were talking about it or concerned about it, he said no. Other than a few off-hand jokes, it was business as usual for him and his neighbors in Philly.
Rush Limbaugh noted as he opened his show on October 1st – 12 full hours after the government had shut down – that he woke up that morning and the sun rose and was still high in the sky. The world hadn’t ended. He was right. A lot of what we were told to expect when the government shut down hasn’t happened. The stock markets haven’t exploded. We haven’t had riots in the streets. Things aren’t basically pretty normal. All of the doomsday scenarios haven’t happened (yet).
It’s been over a week now and things still seem pretty much the same as they did October 1.
Here’s a big question that I can’t answer – why?
Republicans have made it a core mantra of our party that the federal government has gotten too large, intrudes too far into the lives of the citizenry, that the sheer number and size of the agencies the federal government is comprised of is a threat to liberty. Our libertarian friends go even farther, accusing the President of taking near dictatorial control over whole sectors of American life. We have made it a fundamental part of our governing philosophy – the federal government is too large and we need to stop it.
If all of that is true, then why didn’t life as we know it stop when the federal government shut down? If the government has taken control, and that same government is now not functioning because of the shut down, why are huge swaths of the American people acting as if nothing has happened? If folks outside the Beltway are generally ignoring the government shut down, how can we honestly say that government is playing too large a role in our lives? It shuts down, and hardly anyone outside DC noticed.
The longer the shut down goes on with the same minimal impacts we’ve seen so far, the harder it will be to convince the average American – who is also the average voter – that government has grown so large as to threaten our way of life. While the threat that the government could grow too large and too intrusive will always be out there, the categorical statement that things are already beyond the breaking point will be very difficult to make with a straight face.
This is one of the dangers of the DC tendency to exaggerate the worst-case consequences of public policy choices. When the oracles of doom proclaim that something is not survivable (the sequester, for example) yet we survive it, those oracles lose credibility. When they make the same predictions for each and every program and are proven wrong again and again, they go from being oracles to being the boy who cried wolf – and we all know how that story ended. Having made the argument so often when the threat wasn’t credible will ensure that no one is paying attention when the real thing happens.
Make no mistake – I don’t support the shut down and think it was irresponsible for both parties to allow it to happen. I place much of the blame at the feet of those who refuse to negotiate and work out a compromise here, regardless of party. I want to see the government reopened as soon as possible. At the same time, I can’t help but think that we need to stop with the gloom and doom prophesying. Perhaps it’s time we all agree that everyone, on both sides of the aisle, needs to stop giving in to desire to exaggerate every political impasse into an insurmountable crisis that will destroy the country.
I can anticipate some of the responses to my questions here. No one has felt the shutdown because it wasn’t a real shut down – there are too many exemptions and “essential” employees, programs and agencies that Government is still effectively operating. Social Security checks are still going out, EBT cards still work and the White House website is still online. That may be true.
And it may also be true that the shut down is proving we have too many non-essential government agencies and employees. If we can shut down government for a week and no one notices, maybe it’s time to consider cutting some things permanently. That’s also a very fair argument to make – one I think is premature, but I believe it to be fair. If it’s still true if this standoff lasts a month or more, it may become a very hard argument to refute.
But until then, I can’t help but wonder if we all aren’t letting our fears – whether of an out of control government or of a government enfeebled by constant bickering – get the better of us. Because, honestly, if things were as bad as the pundits and the politicians said they would be, shouldn’t we be seeing more evidence of it? Shouldn’t everyone be seeing evidence of it, not just those of us with friends or families in government jobs?
I’ve got a lot of questions today, but I don’t have many answers. I don’t know if anybody has good answers to these questions.
But I do know one thing – I wish we had somebody who would and who could step up and remind the American people that the only thing we really have to fear is fear itself.
Wouldn’t that be something?
