Robert Sarvis is the Libertarian candidate for Virginia Governor who has qualified for the ballot.
Kudos to the Virginia Libertarians for pulling that off!
Before I go into how the Sarvis campaign will affect the outcome of the Governor’s race, let me explain how I truly feel about the Libertarian Party.
I really like them.
Every month or so, just before I am about to develop a blood clot on my forehead from banging against the wall about the latest and greatest antics of SOME of the Republicans, I mosey on over to the Libertarian’s web site and see what they have got going.
After running down their Issues page, I realize that formal membership is not in the offing; however, I dig their attitude. Very Austin Powers. Shagadelic.
They’re kind of the cool kids on the block and now they have a candidate who got on the statewide ballot.
Double thumbs up!
At this stage in the race and I repeat THIS stage, I just don’t see how the Sarvis campaign alters the outcome of the election.
Several factors make up this current view
1. Turnout will be in the mid to high 30s and while that would lend an even more likely impact for a third-party candidate, the fact remains – very few people will show up in the first place.
2. Those voters who will show up are BASE Republicans and BASE Democrats. Libertarians, at least in Virginia for now, don’t really have a BASE.
3. This election will have almost HALF the voters from the 2012 election. Half. These are not just likely voters, they are VERY likely voters – meaning older, meaning less likely to vote third-party. They just don’t.
4. But polling….Yes, I know..When actually contacted on the phone in a historic low turnout election in which many independent voters are not pleased with either the Democratic or Republican candidate, a polled voter will throw a bone to Third Party candidates. They just won’t show up and vote that way.
5. Why not? Because the Sarvis campaign – up to now – is just not based on anything but None of the Above. There is no message, no idea, and no money. Those help people get off their duffs and vote. So does a political operation as witnessed by the numbers Sarvis is posting in various Congressional Districts.
6. I think Sarvis will end up in the low to mid single digits and may surprise some folks in the next six weeks; however, he will need to do more than just be the Other Guy six weeks out.
The other campaigns will see, in their internal pollings, where Sarvis is making serious headway and counter that with appropriate ads and local political messaging.
That’s just what happens in campaigns.
Or maybe you missed where staunch conservative Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli came out and stated that the states should be allowed to decide whether or not medical marijuana should be legalized.
Or when the Cuccinelli campaign showcased the endorsement of Libertarian favorite Kentucky US Senator Rand Paul just ten days ago.
Again – BIG KUDOS to the Sarvis campaign for even getting on the ballot. He might affect the outcome.
Today, I just don’t see it.
(Cross-posted at Chris Saxman.com)
