Bearing Drift and Conquest Communications teamed up to conduct a statewide poll of the top three offices on the November ballot. The results are in and first up: the attorney general race between Republican Mark Obenshain and Democrat Mark Herring.
Our poll found Obenshain ahead, 36 percent to 25 percent, with (an unsurprising) 40 percent undecided among likely voters. The poll’s margin of error is 5 points.
Obenshain leads Herring in the 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th, 7th, 9th and 10th congressional districts. As one would expect, Obenshain’s greatest strength comes from his home-base in the 6th CD, where he has a commanding 54-14 lead, with 31 percent undecided. Herring’s strength is in the state’s urban districts, with the 11th being his best (37-29, 34 percent undecided).
What do these numbers tell us? Obenshain is doing what he needs to do to win, but the undecided vote is enormous, even in the regions where both candidates are best known from their time in the state Senate. As down-ticket races typically receive much less coverage than the gubernatorial race, that’s no surprise. But with Obenshain now buying TV time, his numbers should improve statewide.
We will post the full poll results and cross tabs on Monday.
Up tomorrow: the lieutenant governor’s race.
